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摩通:港銀將受惠週期盈利復甦 明年壞帳壓力減輕
格隆匯 12-09 16:07

摩銀大通發表研究報告指出,該行上週上調港銀評級因整體投資氣氛改善,短期看好匯控(0005.HK)和渣打(2888.HK),因兩行歐美/新興市場業務比重較大,將受惠於海外經濟從疫情中復甦,而兩行比較,摩通又將渣打看高一線,主要是擔心英國脱歐風險,估計接近明年二、三月,投資者會將注意力轉向銀行營運表現,相信中銀香港(2388.HK)在盈利韌性和每股派息方面,都會跑贏同業。

*虛擬銀行競爭未成威脅*

報告指出,雖然孳息曲線傾斜對財資部門和投資收益率均有利,但對擴闊香港貸款息差助力不大。摩通上調銀行股預測,主要基於週期性盈利復甦及監管/地緣政風險下降。摩通認為,來自虛擬銀行的競爭不會對香港上市銀行未來12-18個月的盈表現帶來太大的影響,即使減價戰或令虛擬銀行搶得市佔率,但如何推動賺息資產增長,才是港銀中期增長持續增長的關鍵。

*恆生市盈率並非不吸引*

摩通續指,今年上半年預期信用損失約2/3為第一和第二階段的貸款,鑑於GDP和PMI數據不是比預期為佳,就是出現改善跡象,相信明年港銀信貸成本壓力將會減輕。

摩通又提到恆生銀行(0011.HK)的市盈率被扭曲,若撇除會計準則改變和出售興業銀行的影響後,恆生現時市盈率比其長期平均值仍低10%,相信股本回報率改善和每股增加派息,將支持恆生市盈率上升。

摩通對港銀最新評級及目標價見下表:

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