化工行業週報：11月PMI公佈，醋酸產業鏈、尿素、鈦白粉調漲，維持“推薦”行業評級
機構：興業證券
評級：推薦
投資要點
中國化工品價格指數（CCPI）：上週CCPI繼續下跌0.7%，較上月同期上漲6.3%，年內增速為4.5%，較去年同期上漲3.9%。?本週漲幅較大的產品：醋酸(華東)，32.8%；中國LNG現貨(華北)，20.3%；六氟磷酸鋰，17.5%；腈綸短纖(1.5D,38毫米)，15.2%；醋酸乙烯(華東)，14.3%。
上週跌幅較大的產品：碳酸二甲酯DMC(華東)，-14.8%；乙烷(MB)，-12.7%；順酐(華東)，-12.6%；工業萘(華東)，-11.6%；丙二醇(華東)，-10.9%。
近期觀點
聚氨酯：海外方面，科思創美國MDI及相關產品因原料短缺出現不可抗力（32萬噸）；亨斯曼美國路易斯安那州Geismar的MDI工廠（50萬噸）部分停產；陶氏化學美國所有MDI產品遭遇不可抗力（34萬噸）。根據隆眾資訊，上海科思創（55萬噸）正處檢修，後續萬華寧波（80萬噸）裝置將於2020年12月15日開始檢修，重慶巴斯夫（40萬噸）亦存檢修計劃，MDI集中檢修供給收緊。需求方面，全球復工推進，MDI需求修復。在需求向好及行業高集中度背景下，MDI價格已迎明顯回升。重點推薦萬華化學。
煤化工：年內印度主要農作物種植面積同比大幅增長，或對尿素需求增加。此外，甲醇、乙二醇等產品價差處於歷史底部區域，預計行業內部分企業已處虧損狀態。從行業運行規律來看，該狀態不可持續，即無論需求恢復與否，行業平均盈利能力都將修復。當前下游需求逐步修復，部分煤化工產品甲醇、醋酸、己二酸-原料價差分別位於18.0%、42.7%和10.0%的歷史分位，較前期5%左右的歷史分位有所回升，行業盈利能力底部修復邏輯逐步驗證。重點推薦國內煤化工龍頭企業華魯恆升。
農藥：上週部分農藥中間體（甘氨酸等）及原藥（草甘膦、苯醚甲環唑、噻蟲嗪）價格走高，中農立華原藥價格指數繼續上漲至96.11點，環比上月漲4.0%。農藥企業在成本控制、產品佈局、技術實力、一體化佈局等方面存在的差距進一步擴大。農藥產品格局分化：重點關注菊酯、創新藥（乙唑蟎腈、四氯蟲酰胺、氯蟲苯甲酰胺等）、草銨膦等。近期EPA通過麥草畏關鍵登記，且先正達集團擬成為揚農化工控股股東，有望加速成長。重點推薦揚農化工、聯化科技、利爾化學、廣信股份。
風險提示：化工產品需求不達預期的風險，國際油價大幅下跌的風險，環保落實不力的風險
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