新高教集團(02001.HK)：專注內生增長，適度外延擴張，給予“買入”評級，目標價7.10港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.10 港元
FY20經調整淨利潤同比增加127%
截止2020年8月底的財年，新高教實現收入12.9億人民幣，同比增長77.8%，其中學費和住宿費分別同比增長87.4%和5.6%。由於受到疫情影響，期內公司退還住宿費3,719萬人民幣。受益於成本控制能力，公司FY20毛利率47.7%，在FY19基礎上擴張4.7個百分點，優於預期。期內公司實現經調整淨利潤43.3億人民幣，比2019年增加24.3億人民幣，增速127.3%。
內生增長穩健
人數方面，2020/21學年在讀人數為12.6萬人，同比增長10.7%，其中廣西學校人數增長30.3%、華中學校人數增長18.9%。從2017/18至今，在校人數平均年複合增長32.3%，顯示學校在納入新高教網絡後招生能力進一步提升。收入方面，過去三年，集團內生收購增速穩定在20%左右。成立時間最久的雲南學院，主營收入和淨利潤增速依然分別高達48%和49%。2015年收購的華中學校主營收入和淨利潤增速為53%和169%。管理層相信本科學校華中、甘肅學校學費仍有10%-30%的增長空間。公司將繼續專注在發揮集團化辦學優勢、快速整合新收購學校、提升運營效率和盈利能力、保持內生增長處於行業領先地位。管理層預期未來三年內生增長將推動淨利潤年複合增長25%以上。
適度穩健式外延擴張
新高教將圍繞“京津冀協同發展、長江經濟帶發展、粵港澳大灣區建設及成渝地區雙城經濟圈建設”的國家戰略，未來集團將加快以上重點區域佈局，配套教育以服務地方經濟，同時推進自建和併購，公司已計劃將在大灣區自建學校，預計在2021年啟動籌建，2022年投入使用。公司計劃未來每年自建或併購學校1-2所學校。
財務預測與估值
我們最新預測公司FY21E收入15億人民幣，淨利潤6.5億人民幣。甘肅學校將於FY21併入集團報表，以及華中和甘肅學校轉設進程正待教育部審核，預期2021上半年轉設完成。現時公司估值對應9.9倍市盈率。我們維持前瞻市盈率15倍估值，維持目標價7.10港元、“買入”評級。
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