植耀輝: 港股繼續區間上落 資源航運股急升有因
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股昨日(8日)在傳統經濟板塊包括銀行股等拖累下偏弱全日計下跌202點,收報26,304點,過去兩個交易日累跌超過530點。雖然錄得兩連跌,但至今仍未跌破25,800至26,000點支持,由於隔晚美股造好,預期今日港股有力反彈,惟暫時仍難擺脫26,000點至27,000點區間上落格局。
近期雖然市況一般,但部分板塊走勢卻相當「標青」,較突出的分別是新能源車、金屬資源及航運相關股。較早前已簡單分享過對新能源車之看法,今日則集中談談後兩者。有色金屬股如江西銅(00358.HK)自11月起顯著上升,累計升幅一度超過44%;中鋁(02600.HK)更加誇張,由1.7元附近升至最高3.15元,累升超過85%。
究竟有什麼因素導致此情況?原因自然離不開對經濟復甦之預期升溫有關,始終疫苗的出現,令大眾憧憬明年經濟有望出現強勁反彈;而全球最大有色金屬消耗國及進口國之中國經濟復元速度較快,不過大部分資源出口國卻因疫情而影響供應,在供不應求下價格便被大幅扯高。加上內地推出措施包括汽車下鄉及促進消費等,進一步推升有色金屬之需求,結果便令資源價格急升,連帶憧憬相關企業今年業績會有強勁表現。
類似情況亦發生在航運股身上。疫情爆發令航運公司刪減數以百計航班,歐美多地港口又出現「工人荒」,導致大量集裝箱積壓,而隨著內地經濟逐步恢復正常,外貿需求快速回升。在「一箱難求」下,導致貨運費飆升至歷史新高。
不過,今次情況更大原因可能是偶發性事件,當各地出口陸續恢復正常,供需失衡狀況亦會改善;另外,不少集運公司也在積極將空箱調配回中國、越南等相關出口需求旺盛之亞洲國家。所以相關股份之炒作未必可以太長久,建議大家宜趁高位鎖定部分利潤較佳。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~
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