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“煤飛色舞”捲土重來!順週期再次升温
格隆匯 12-09 10:30

12月9日,A股煤炭板塊高開,領漲板塊,其中,雲煤能源、陝西黑貓、鄭州煤電漲停,寶泰隆、安源煤業、遼寧能源等紛紛跟漲。

數據來源:同花順

同時,近期,動力煤現貨和期貨價格也頻頻拉漲,創出歷史新高,其中,例如近一週時間內,河北市場上的動力煤均價漲幅高達6.21%。

今日,動力煤主力期貨繼續走強,現漲超3%。

數據來源:同花順

從消息面上來看,2021年度全國煤炭交易會暨中國太原煤炭交易大會於12月8日至10日在太原舉行。其中,根據公開數據顯示,大會現場煤炭上下游企業已簽訂煤炭中長期合同7.4億噸,預計交易會簽約總量將超10億噸,可謂是十分火爆。

而究及本次煤炭板塊再次出現異動的原因,即乘着順週期之風供需端的變化所致

整體來説,雖説新冠疫情的黑天鵝效應,令全球經濟蒙受陰霾,但在其中,由於我國疫情得到有效的防控,復工復產已進入正軌,使得宏觀經濟逐步向好發展,為順週期板塊孕育了一個良好的市場環境。

其中,儘管在今年上半年,受疫情影響,工業用電下降明顯,在一定程度上影響了煤炭需求,打擊了行業的景氣度,使得板塊走勢較為頹靡。但隨着我國經濟發展不斷顯出積極信號,近期藉着順週期的東風,板塊反彈走勢明顯,頻頻上演“煤飛色舞”的行情。

在供給方面,基於海外疫情的反覆爆發,煤炭進口量頻頻下降,疊加多地加大煤礦安全檢查力度且發出環保限產通知,以及港口去庫存不斷,煤礦產能增長受到限制,使得供給端缺乏一些彈性。

根據中國煤炭工業協會最新數據,截至10月末,煤炭企業存煤6100萬噸,環比下降4.3%;全國主要港口合計存煤5775萬噸,環比下降9.9%;其中,北方港口存煤2776萬噸,環比下降8%;南方港口存煤2999萬噸,環比下降11.6%。

同時,10月全國煤炭進口量1372.6萬噸,較同期減少1195.9萬噸,同比下降46.56%,較9月的1867.6萬噸減少495萬噸,環比下降26.5%,煤炭進口規模已連續三個月出現下降。此外,1月—10月全國累計進口煤炭25315.5萬噸,累計降幅8.3%,降幅較1月—9月的數據(4.4%)明顯擴大。

在需求方面,隨着我國進入冬季,對煤炭的供暖需求高峯已至,市場供需在一定時間內會維持緊平衡之勢。

在市場情緒對順週期板塊的偏好之下,供給的收緊以及需求的釋放會使得近期煤價維持一定的上揚之勢,處於高位運行,存有一定的上漲空間,而在供需偏緊的支撐下繼續收穫超額收益,提升板塊估值

華西證券認為,當前煤價易漲難跌,煤炭板塊順週期且估值仍低,龍頭煤企業績超預期+高分紅+低估值,股價修復空間仍巨大。重點推薦標為動力煤龍頭陝西煤業、中國神華、露天煤業,以及具有成長性的西南焦煤龍頭盤江股份。另有焦炭上漲受益標的:金能科技等。

廣發證券表示,三季度以來煤價好於預期,未來在煤價平穩的預期下,部分公司煤炭低估值和高分紅優勢將繼續顯現。而近期板塊估值有所提升,但行業PB(LF)仍僅為1.03倍,估值總體仍處於歷史低位。

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