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大新:料未来两年低息环境持续 中美关系发展仍未明朗
阿思达克 12-08 16:12
大新银行(02356.HK)经济师温嘉炜出席记者会时指,受疫情影响环球经济放慢,而内地率先复工复产,带领经济复苏,欧美地区则继续受疫情拖累,经济活动或要待2021-22年方可回复至疫情爆发前的水平。在疫苗方面,他指出部分疫苗在第三阶段测试显示九成有效预防新冠病毒,估计疫苗尽快普及可有利经济活动全面重启,但大规模接种的时间及成效尚不明朗。

他表示多个主要经济体今年已大幅增加财政开支纾缓下行压力,政府负债比率相信将进一步上升,或限制进一步加大财政措施的空间,而主要央行过去一年削减政策利率至历史低位,未来两年相信会保持低息以减轻信贷压力。

不过他认为中美关系未来发展仍然未明朗,因为拜登新政府对华立场仍未明确,在科技、军事等领域或会保持强硬,而签订RCEP则有助中国打开其他国家市场。

他指出内地工业产能利用率已回升至疫情前水平,而失业率亦稳步下降,加上内地零售销售自8月起恢复正增长,主要由汽车销售带动,相信未来或会有更多振兴消费的政策推出。不过他认为内地社会融资今年显着增长,协助实体经济抵御疫情冲击,所以央行未来料更小心控制政策方向,避免信贷风险上升。(el/a) ~

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