贝莱德智库增持亚洲股票及固定收益资产
贝莱德智库亚太区首席投资策略师庞文博(Ben Powell)表示,新型肺炎疫情加快对经济和社会运作模式所带来的深远改变,并在四大领域体现相关的重大变化,包括可持续发展投资、不平等待遇、地缘政治局势,及财政与货币政策改革。
该行2021年投资主题为债息新常态、重整全球化布局和结构性趋势的加速推进,反映了相关变局。该行并上调整体风险水平,策略性地增持股票,同时以板块投资为主导。一方面在疫情催化的变革洪流中,把握科技和医疗保健股的投资机会;另一方面放眼经济重启的前景,偏好预期能够受惠的主要股行业板块,以均衡投资分配。
由於亚洲地区在防控疫情方面成效显着,该行增持亚洲(除日本外)股票及亚洲固定收益资产,同时偏好能够受惠於中国经济增长的资产。除了预期新型肺炎疫苗的推出可带动经济增长之外,该行亦认为即使通胀预期回升,债券的名义收益率将继续处於低位,有利风险资产的表现。在财政及货币政策官员前所未有的协作下,央行或将致力抑压名义债息的升幅,这为以往在通胀升温时股价表现往往受压的股票资产带来支持。
该行亦策略性增持新兴市场股票,因全球经济增长将受惠於已发展市场财政刺激措施的外溢效应,而美国的贸易及外交政策在拜登政府带领下的可预测性较高,加上美国负实质利率的环境将使美元转弱。
另外该行亦减持日本股票,因日本市场在全球贸易活动回升时的受惠幅度未及其他亚洲和新兴市场,而美元转弱将推升日圆汇价并令出口表现受压,疫情的演变也是另一个重要考虑因素。
中国正向全球投资者开放资本市场。不论是出於分散投资或回报潜力的考量,该行视中国资产为策略性投资组合中的核心部分,有别於其他新兴市场的资产。综观全球目前有不少投资者在中国的投资比重偏低,而中国资产在全球指数成分的占比将逐步提高,预期资金将持续流入中国市场。尽管内地债务比重较高、人民币可能贬值及与美国的分歧将构成投资风险,但中国资产的投资收益应能弥补其所附带的风险。至於实际上如何实践,则视乎投资者所面对的政治和法律等方面的限制。
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