東風集團股份(00489.HK)：日系強勁依舊，嵐圖發展可期，給予“買入”評級，目標價 11.06 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.06 港元
核心觀點：
公司是國內乘用及商用車龍頭企業之一，綜合實力雄厚。據中汽協，20 年前 10 月公司汽車市佔率為 11.3%，其中乘、商分別為 11.4%、 10.9%，18 年來商用車市佔率保持提升。預計 21 年重卡行業銷量保持平穩，同比增速在-10%至 5%之間，公司商用車收入將保持穩定。
乘用車行業需求復甦，日系品牌強勁銷售趨勢有望帶來盈利增長。我們在 21 年策略報告《積極擁抱變革與升級中的α》判斷：“估計 21年乘用車終端銷量增速有望 10-15%，行業盈利有望達到或超 19 年。”東風本田銷量增速長期優於整體日系車，東風日產軒逸銷量穩定增長，預計東風集團未來兩年乘用車業務收入盈利有望雙雙持續增長。
籌劃創業板上市，新能源高端品牌嵐圖為集團注入新活力。集團在2020 年 11 月 10 日發佈的公告中承諾：A 股發行上市後 3 年內現金分紅比例不少於母公司當年度可分配利潤的 40%。集團計劃本次 IPO籌資 210 億元，其中的 70 億元另加自有資金 40 億元共 110 億元投向全新高端新能源汽車品牌嵐圖項目。嵐圖項目兼具提振東風自主品牌與進入高端純電市場的雙重任務，預計將成為公司業務發展的新動力。
日系合資企業有望持續支持公司盈利增長，自主品牌將受惠於新能源項目的落地實施，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。不考慮 A 股上市影響，預計公司 20-22 年歸母淨利潤為 105.0/127.2/140.3 億元人民幣，同比增長-18.4%/21.2%/10.3%；EPS 分別為 1.22/1.48/1.63 元人民幣/股，給予公司 20 年 8 倍的 PE 估值，對應合理價值 11.06 港元/股（匯率計算：人民幣：港幣為 0.881:1），首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情影響乘用車需求，公司 NEV 項目落地不及預期。
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