《大行報告》花旗料四大內銀若要符「總損失吸收能力」要求 貸款複合增長率須降至介乎4至11%
花旗發表報告指,今年9月30日,中國人民銀行與中銀監會發布關於「總損失吸收能力」(TLAC)標準實施的諮詢文件,要求中國具有全球系統重要性(G-SIB)(globally systemically important)(目前為四大銀行)的銀行要實施「總損失吸收能力」的相關標準及要求。
該行表示,若需符合全球「總損失吸收能力」標準的要求,在派息比率不變的前題下,估計內地四大銀行在今年至2024年的貸款年均複合增長率須放慢至介乎4.3%至10.6%,其中中國銀行(03988.HK)及工商銀行(01398.HK)在貸款增長方面將面臨最大拖累。假如其他銀行同樣被認為具有全球系統重要性,花旗相信有關銀行或要有更高的資本標準,而交通銀行(03328.HK)是最有可能的銀行。
花旗提到,隨著「總損失吸收能力」令銀行的貸款增長和派息比率受壓,預計內地監管機構將放鬆對銀行逆周期撥備及盈利增長的控制,因保持銀行有穩定的派息比率會優先於貸款增長。內銀股中,該行H股首選買入為建設銀行(00939.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK),A股則為平安銀行(000001.SZ)及興業銀行(601166.SH)。
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