通信行業2021年投資策略：不卑不亢,砥礪前行，挖掘新賽道機會，維持“超配”行業評級
機構：國信證券
評級：超配
2020年行情回顧：通信板塊全年下跌，大幅跑輸市場截至11月底，申萬（通信）指數下跌4.8%，大幅跑輸市場。通信板塊估值從2018年下半年開始逐步提升，至2020年8月開始有所調整，目前仍處於過去兩年中的較高水平。
2020年5G建設速度加快，2021年謹慎樂觀截至2020年10月，我國新建5G基站數量超過57萬站（已提前完成年初50萬個的目標），建設速度超預期。展望2021年，預計國內電信運營商整體資本開支穩步提升，全球5G建設亦有望企穩回升。國內5G移動用户滲透率達到11%，5G終端出貨量快速增長，21年5G應用開始逐步落地。
物聯網：5G開啟量價齊升新增長週期2021年隨着蜂窩通信技術從簡單的2G/3G應用向4G/5G應用升級，單個連接數對應的價格大幅提升，產業開啟新一輪增長週期。車聯網和工業互聯網作為最大的兩個應用場景有望在21年逐步落地，其中，工業軟件處於核心環節，國產化空間較大。
雲計算&雲基建：企業上雲加速，高增長可期全球公有云市場和國內雲計算市場仍處於高速發展期，部分公司明年雲資本開支的預期較高。在此刺激下，未來三年IDC建設依舊處於高景氣，光模塊雙重受益5G建設和雲計算，彈性依舊可期。
統一通信與協作：雲辦公大勢下優質賽道遠程辦公趨勢加大企業通信需求，統一通信與協作平台的發展拉動視頻會議設備和雲辦公終端的需求，全球視頻會議市場穩步推進，龍頭企業穩健發展壯大。?軍工通信：受益十四五規劃和軍工信息化升級預計十四五期間相關軍費投入會保持增長態勢，雷達、衞星導航、信息安全、軍工通信與軍工電子五大領域將成為軍工信息化升級的重要方向。
投資建議
5G板塊仍處上升通道，但處於估值下行通道，整體謹慎樂觀；新細分賽道成長性更佳，重點挖掘投資機會，推薦公司包括中興通訊、移遠通信、廣和通、新天科技、拓邦股份、中際旭創、億聯網絡、博通集成、華工科技、博創科技、萬國數據、金山雲。
風險提示：5G投資建設不及預期、中美貿易戰等外部環境變化、全球疫情加劇風險
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