電氣設備新能源行業2021年度投資策略：兼顧成長和估值，在變中尋找機會，維持“超配”行業評級
機構：西部證券
評級：超配
●核心結論
光伏板塊性價比依然有優勢：電新板塊中，光伏板塊個股估值普遍在20-30倍之間，明顯低於新能源汽車板塊，因此性價比最具優勢。風電板塊雖估值更低，但成長性弱於光伏。
優選成長性板塊龍頭個股長期持有：光伏、新能源車和工控自動化是處於成長期的成長性板塊，主要領域格局已經基本形成。龍頭個股股價雖然仍會隨着市場波動，但因為成長空間廣闊，建議長期持有並根據市場情況做小幅調倉。這些個股包括：隆基股份(601012.SH)、匯川技術(300124.SZ)、恩捷股份(002812.SZ)、億緯鋰能(300014.SZ)、福萊特(601865.SH)、宏發股份(600885.SH)和陽光電源(300274.SZ)。
短期可關注供需偏緊環節中業績確定性的機會：預計2021年全球光伏新增裝機150-160GW，根據對供需的測算，不同環節鬆緊不一。光伏硅料環節全年偏緊，價格有望維持高位，龍頭個股通威股份(600438.SH)業績確定性較強。光伏玻璃環節上半年供給偏緊，下半年趨於寬鬆，但3.2mm玻璃全年均價仍有望維持30元以上，個股業績增長確定性強，推薦福萊特(601865.SH)。膠膜環節龍頭公司份額較高，產出相對可控，龍頭公司有望維持業績穩定增長，相關公司福斯特(603806.SH)。
光伏板塊細分領域出口替代及結構性機會有望維持：逆變器未來仍將受益於國內企業在全球市場份額提升的機會及組串式逆變器的份額提升，相關公司有陽光電源(300274.SZ)、固德威(688390.SH)；跟蹤支架滲透率依然偏底，可關注龍頭個股的全球份額提升的機會，相關公司中信博(688408.SH)。
變中尋找機會：新能源汽車板塊雖然多數細分領域已經形成龍頭效應，但仍然存在變數，正負極等領域尚未形成穩定的格局，值得關注；中環股份(002129.SZ)、中材科技(002080.SZ)等公司雖然目前仍然存在一些分歧，但可能會因產品力提升、治理結構改變等的變化迎來來新的投資機會。光伏板塊效率提升的主旋律下，大尺寸、HJT等新技術或催生新的投資機會，相關公司捷佳緯創(300724.SZ)、邁為股份(300751.SZ)。
推薦具備自身競爭力的細分領域龍頭：低壓電器板塊相對成熟，但良信電器(002706.SZ)憑藉競爭優勢會持續獲得份額提升機會，八方股份(603489.SH)所在電踏車行業仍有較大成長空間，也具備長期持有價值。
市場出現不利變化時可關注防禦性機會：風電板塊不可避免會因為搶裝原因迎來連續兩年國內需求下滑，但可關注具備業績成長穩定性的低估值個股，推薦日月股份(603218.SH)和天順風能(002531.SZ)。電力設備板塊龍頭公司國電南瑞(600406.SH)雖業績彈性偏小，但受益於新能源接入對電網要求提升、電力物聯網及電力信息化的發展將保持長期穩定增長。
風險提示：政策風險、市場競爭加劇等風險、供應鏈短缺風險等。
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