家電行業2021年上半年投資策略：雨後春筍，節節上升，維持“推薦”評級
機構：東莞證券
評級：推薦
2020年業績和行情雙反轉。2020年家電走出強於市場行情：2020年前11個月家電板塊漲幅31.2%，白電、廚電、零部件板塊漲幅大於滬深300指數和行業指數。行業業績方面：行業走出新冠疫情泥潭，行業上升週期確立，收入端和利潤端回升明顯。
內外需求向好趨勢會延續。自從2020年5月份以來，地產銷售面積連續2個季度正增長，10月商品房銷售面積同比增長高達15.27%，地產後週期的大家電消費在2021年有望維持較高水平。預計2020-2022年家電市場迎來更新需求小高潮，新一輪促進家電消費政策出台，時間上與上一輪家電刺激政策剛好相差10年左右，這也是大家電自然壽命替換週期，本輪刺激政策將實現家電壽命替換對接，另外消費升級、產品升級、渠道線上變革趨勢明顯。
供給端預示樂觀預期。今年以來，受需求帶動，家電上游原材料價格均出現較大幅度上漲，我們也可以看到，近期部分廠商終端產品提價應對原材料上漲帶來的成本上升壓力。今年5月份以來空調、冰箱等產品的工業庫存在快速上升，產量增速大於銷量增速，現在與2019年被動庫存增加的情況有所不同，廠商對明年銷售預期樂觀，因而加大了庫存儲備。
投資策略：維持推薦評級。新冠疫情給全球經濟造成深遠影響，中國家電產業鏈的完整性並未受到衝擊，疫情給在生產端和消費渠道端造成的影響在疫情緩解之後已經改善，家電行業下行週期已持續11個季度，行業景氣度在2020年Q2已經實現探底回升，疫情滯後消費回暖讓行業加速走出泥潭，有望奠實新週期U型底，疫後全球經濟復甦有望帶動內外銷回暖。
投資主線：○1強者恆強，週期向上，關注美的集團（000333）、格力電器（000651）、海爾智家（600690），廚電龍頭老闆電器（002508）；○2小家電普及加速，關注九陽股份（002242），蘇泊爾（002032）；○3能效等級提升及新能源業務擴展，三花智控（002050）。
風險提示：疫情反覆性；地產週期復甦不及預期；行業庫存及價格戰。
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