化工行業：產品漲價潮持續，繼續推薦化工順週期板塊，維持“增持”行業評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：增持
投資要點
上週板塊表現:上週上證綜指報收3,444.58，上週累計上漲1.06%，深證成指上週上漲2.45%，化工板塊（申萬）上漲0.42%。
上週可降解塑料概念表現強勢：上週化工板塊漲幅居前的個股有丹化科技、銀禧科技、瀚葉股份、上海天洋、華信新材、江蘇索普、美聯新材、光威復材、潤禾材料、山東赫達。11月30日商務部再次出台限塑相關政策，可降解塑料概念熱度再起，丹化科技、華信新材、美聯新材等可降解塑料概念標的本週表現強勢。
庫存週期推動漲價潮，經濟復甦預期提振市場情緒：本輪週期回升的邏輯是疫情的衝擊持續削弱海外生產力，疊加國內前期供給側改革、環保核查等階段性影響，導致只有國內部分生產力能夠滿足全球需求的庫存週期見底過程。年初國內疫情的影響使得企業的擴產節奏按下暫停鍵，雖然悲觀情緒在2月份以後得到持續修復，但原材料和產成品庫存尚未明顯反彈，化工品出現漲價潮，價差持續拉大。隨着全球新冠疫苗研發取得重大進展，經濟全面復甦的預期不斷抬升，化工順週期板塊有望維持強勢。
重點化工品跟蹤，有機硅、鈦白粉繼續強勢：本週對於我們監測的154類重點化工品，上週對於我們監測的154類重點化工品，上週漲幅前五的產品有硫酸(23.81%)、腈綸短纖(15.85%)、濃硝酸(11.62%)、硫磺(11.26%)、丙烯腈(9.50%)。據我們跟蹤，有機硅、鈦白粉等順週期化工品庫存仍在消耗，開工率穩步提升，景氣週期仍在上行。
投資建議：隨着疫情對化工行業的影響逐漸減弱，處於週期底部的績優化工股正在迎來反轉，推薦順週期白馬股萬華化學、龍蟒佰利、三友化工、合盛硅業，以及技術壁壘高、成長確定性強的細分行業龍頭昊華科技、新亞強、東材科技和震安科技。
風險提示：油價大幅波動，新冠疫情持續惡化，貿易戰形勢惡化。
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