《大行報告》花旗料內銀明年盈利轉升 普遍升目標價 首選建行及郵儲行
花旗發表內銀股明年展望報告,預期中國明年貨幣政策正常化,市場關注今年刺激經濟的措施或會導致財富差距擴大,指人行較全球其他中央銀行一直採取更強硬的立場,強調退出刺激政策的必要性,該行估計內地信貸擴張周期即將結束,並預計2021年社會融資規模和新增貸款增速將放緩,明年社會融資規模從2020年的13.5%降至11.1%、料明年新增貸款增速,將由2020年13.1%降至10.9%,並料內地加快實施的政策以促進直接融資,將在滿足公司融資需求方面發揮更大作用。
該行估計,內銀股明年收益有望大幅回升(對比2020年第四季),因中國財政部已揚言希望維持派息穩定;銀行收益可受惠經濟復步入正軌;內銀純利增長可增加核心資本。此外,該行料內銀股各種經營趨勢有所改善,料淨息差可於明年上半年見底,手續費收入將反彈,並且信貸成本保持穩定,從而支撐了可持續收益復蘇。
【料純利回升 上調目標價】
花旗指,上調對內銀股2020年至2022年純利預測,預計內銀今年純利按年跌2%、料明年純利可增長4%、料2022年純利增速加快至6.4%。
該行料內銀股在內地利率上升的環境中可跑贏大市,該行更傾向於在資本充足的情況下渴望實現強勁收益增長的銀行股,如平安銀行和興業銀行;大型銀行股中,該行看好郵儲銀行(01658.HK)和建行(00939.HK),指為內銀H股首選。
花旗上調對工行(01398.HK)目標價由5.78元升至6.48元,維持「買入」評級;該行升建行目標價由7.58元升至8.39元,維持「買入」評級;該行對農行(01288.HK)目標價由3.86元升至4.31元,維持「買入」評級;該行升中行(03988.HK)目標價由3.86元升至4.33元,維持「買入」評級;該行上調招行(03968.HK)目標價由46.67元升至57.37元,維持「買入」評級。
花旗上調郵儲銀行目標價由4.76元升至6.38元,維持「買入」評級。
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