《大行报告》大摩升内险股行业评级至「吸引」 全线升目标价
摩根士丹利发表中港保险业明年展望报告表示,估计随着内地利率上升及A股市场稳定,估计内地明年保险销售可望加速,行业会趋正常化,料内险股将可跑赢大市,决定上调内险股行业评级,由「符预期」升至「吸引」。
就内地寿险业前景方面,该行估计新冠疫情令行业在今年保单销售及利润率受压,但该行相信内地人口增长,医疗费用上涨和内地居民财富持续增长,家庭仍需分配更多资金用於养老金储蓄和健康保险,可支持行业保单销售及毛利正常化,从以推动险企盈利增长。
大摩预测中国的十年期政府国债收益率约3.5%,预计A股明年将保持稳定(料回报率为10%)。这些均可为内险股提供一个容纳具有更高估值潜力的运营环境。该行指明年喜爱中国寿险股多於财险股。
该行指,中资保险股首选中国太保(02601.HK)(营运具质素、低基数及具股息支持)、中国平安(02318.HK)(具良好业务、寿险业务转型、作科技投资)及中国财险(02328.HK)(低估值、料有稳定增长率及高股息)。
大摩全线内险升目标价,上调对中国太保目标价由32元升至41元,维持「增持」评级;调高对中国平安目标价由118元升至121元,维持「增持」评级;上调对中国财险目标价由11元升至12元,维持「增持」评级。
该行亦上调对国寿(02628.HK)目标价由18元升至20元,维持「与大市同步」评级。
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