心動公司(02400.HK)：如何從廣告價值看TapTap未來空間？，維持“買入”評級，目標價48.75 港元
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
目標價：48.75 港元
長現基本結論
以廣告收入=eCPM×I.M.測算未來廣告收入空間，5年內有望達到 60億。
一、eCPM（千次展示收益） 如何提升：高用户匹配度提高 CTR、年輕化高 LTV 遊戲增多拉高 TapTap 整體 CPC： 1）TapTap 用户年輕化，用户定位與廣告主要求更加契合：以 Z世代為代表的 TapTap 年輕用户具有高付費潛力；2）預計 TapTap 精準投放能力提升，提高廣告與細分用户的匹配度，CTR 提高廣告主投放意願增強；3）TapTap 作為零分成新興渠道吸引遊戲入駐併成為潛在廣告主；4）當前 TapTap廣告投放競爭分散，預計未來針對年輕人的頭部高品質高 LTV 遊戲增多，與 TapTap 定向用户廣告匹配率提高，一方面提高廣告位競爭程度，另一方面高 LTV 遊戲廣告預算將會更多，平台整體的廣告價格有望提升。
二、I.M. （廣告展示量）——社區化改版為增加廣告位，拓展廣告類型奠定基礎，展示量有望高速增長。TapTap“社區+渠道”模式擁有更大用户增長空間，有望通過增加廣告位，擴展廣告形式增加收入：1）社區化模式延長用户停留時間，為增設廣告位降低用户排斥感創設條件：TapTap 意欲打破傳統渠道身份成長為年輕化社區，社區化改版豐富 UGC 內容產出，增加用户粘性和使用時長，為增設廣告位創造前提；2）獨佔&自研遊戲拉動用户增長：得益於優質獨佔&自研遊戲，2020 年上半年月活同比增長 51.9%，預計未來廣告主投放意願增強，廣告請求量相應增加。3）豐富廣告類型以提高廣告匹配率：當前 TapTap 廣告形式單一，未來預計更高 eCPM的視頻廣告等形式增多，提高廣告填充率。
投資建議
TapTap平台的成長是未來公司發展的關鍵，預計 5年後 TapTap廣告收入天花板約為 60億，5年後 TapTap和遊戲業務估值合計 493億元，由於遊戲上線節奏較慢及老遊戲流水下滑，我們分別下調公司 2020/2021/2022年歸母淨利潤 32%/36%/34%至 3.66/4.64/5.92億元，EPS分別為 0.81/1.02/1.31元，對應 P/E46.87X/36.96X/28.98X，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
平台用户增長不及預期；TapTap商業化進展不及預期；頭部遊戲表現不及預期；即將上線遊戲表現不及預期；遊戲出海業務發展不及預期。
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