中國燃氣(00384.HK)：LNG進口布局迅速，輕資產業務結構提升，給予“買入”評級，目標價35.80港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：35.80港元
我們認為公司發佈的中期業績向市場傳達了商業模式優化的諸多正面信號：LNG進口業務佈局迅速且優勢顯著，有望持續利好氣量與價差；增值服務渠道優勢獨特，為公司提供了消費屬性的增長動能；接駁量結構優化，智能微管網與南方城市暖居業務有望取代鄉鎮氣代煤，帶來增量業績與更優現金流。維持“買入”評級與目標價 35.80 港元。
▍LNG 進口業務優勢顯著，料持續利好售氣量價。公司已在 2021 年每個月均獲取至少 1 個央企接收站窗口期，全年合計自行進口 LNG 預計不低於 100 萬噸。由於央企自身的管輸費業績訴求，接收站窗口期往往設置高比例的液來氣走分銷要求。龍頭城燃由於具備全國佈局的城燃項目，因此可通過管輸與串換輕鬆滿足液來氣走的要求，而缺乏管輸終端的純貿易商則將難以與央企接收站達成合作。由此，我們預計未來窗口期將逐步集中於第一梯隊城燃。此外，公司藉助國際貿易合作伙伴的力量，也有望在進口過程中獲得較好價格，利好用户開發與價差向好。
▍增值服務高低頻結合，積極擁抱消費屬性。公司增值服務業績中 70%為低頻的燃氣強相關產品，30%為高頻消費品。公司自身燃氣產品定位中低端，同時與高端品牌開展渠道合作，組合開拓市場。公司憑藉城燃獨有的營銷場景、入户信任、以及營業網點帶來的售後服務優勢，結合租賃等靈活的銷售形式、網格化管理與新推出的股權激勵方案，力推業績快速增長。根據公司指引，到 2024~2025 年前後，增值服務業績佔比有望提升至 30%，且長期業務體量空間有望達到 300 億元。
▍接駁量結構優化，加快開發輕資產、高運營利潤用户。公司自本財年以來明顯壓降回款與運營回報存在爭議的鄉鎮氣代煤業務，將新接駁重心轉向城市老户、南方農村 LPG 智能微管網、以及南方城市暖居業務。智能微管網不改變用户用能習慣，有望節省用户用能賬單約 30%，且投資低、工期賬期短。城市暖居業務指引未來 3年接駁 1 億平方米，安裝費料高達 200 元/平，亦可節省用户用能賬單超 30%。此外，智能微管網與城市暖居運營期利潤率均有望超越存量售氣業務。
▍風險因素：售氣量低於預期，毛差縮減，接駁量低於預期，LPG 微管網開拓緩慢，自由現金流不利波動
▍投資建議：結合公司指引與行業狀況，我們預計公司下半財年氣量有望同比增長超18%，核心業績料同比增長約 25%，且後續年度自由現金流有望在今年全面轉正的基礎上穩步增厚。維持公司 2021~2023 財年 EPS 預測為 2.10/2.45/2.83 港元，現價對應動態 PE 為 14/12/10 倍，維持目標價 35.80 港元與“買入”評級。
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