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《大行報告》摩通一舉升恆生(00011.HK)評級至「增持」 上調東亞(00023.HK)至「中性」
阿思達克 12-03 09:39
摩根大通發表研究報告,指香港銀行股可能在2021財年開始迎上周期性盈利復甦,加上地緣政治不確定因素消退及個別銀行的股息收益率潛在上升。該行將恆生銀行(00011.HK)的投資評級由「減持」一舉上調至「增持」,並將東亞銀行(00023.HK)的評級由原來的「減持」調高至「中性」,而中銀香港(02388.HK)直至公布全年業績前,應會維持相對跑贏大市的表現。

報告預期,淨息差將會在下半年繼續受壓,甚至跌破全球金融危機後的歷史低位,這是由於較高的銀行體系餘額、更趨平的孳息率曲線、《巴塞爾協議III》下更嚴格的流動性要求以及較不利的定價結構所致。但是由於活期及儲蓄存款比率提高、孳息率曲線趨於陡峭,及經濟環境改善推動更為有利的貸款結構,令2021財年的利潤率表現或會連續復甦。

另外,摩通指主要銀行的信貸成本在第三季錄按季下跌,而資產質素及預期信貸損失轉移的情況好過預期,預期信貸成本將會在2021財年錄按年下跌,但仍會高於正常水平。

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