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中銀航空租賃(02588.HK):亞太區飛機經營租賃龍頭,穿越週期、行穩致遠,給予“增持”評級,目標價78.19港元
格隆匯 12-03 10:10

機構:東方證券

評級:增持

目標價:78.19港元

核心觀點

疫情衝擊影響空前無礙長期發展前景,亞太市場率先復甦仍是中流砥柱。 1)2020 新冠疫情為全球航空業帶來空前影響,預計需 3-5 年發展才能重回正軌,但是仍然看好中長期發展前景。2)飛機經營租賃是航空業重要組成部分且重要性不斷提升,未來將伴隨航空產業的發展而“水漲船高”。經營租賃公司持有機隊比重已超 50%並不斷提升。3)據波音預測,亞太地區已成為全球航空客運需求量增長速度最快的地區,已成為經營租賃公司兵家必爭之地。

聚焦亞太市場,打造龍頭核心競爭力,平穩穿越行業週期起伏。1)公司享有中國銀行的信用支持與背書,且享有更高的信用評級,平均債務成本常年居於 2-3%;2)公司保持了獨立於國有體制的薪酬體系,採取了市場化的、對管理層有激勵作用的薪酬制度,為公司的高效經營提供了制度保障;3)公司機齡 3.5 年顯著低於可比公司,機隊價值波動率與減值風險較低;4)公司訂單剩餘租期 8.5 年,有利於公司未來現金流的穩定性與確定性,業績確定性更高;5)公司近年來平均 ROE 超過 15%,明顯高於可比公司,疫情衝擊下公司 ROE 抗壓性更強;6)公司淨租賃收益率 8.2%-8.6%,高且穩定;7)作為聚焦亞太的龍頭,公司將充分享受亞太市場成長紅利。

行業即將面臨大規模洗牌,公司有望充分受益。 1)自疫情發生之後,飛機買賣與租賃訂單取消的事件層出不窮,隨着全球航空業蕭條的局面的持續,更多飛機租賃公司的生存將難以為繼,這勢必會帶來新一輪大規模的行業破產與整合浪潮,集中度或加速提升。2)公司把持穩健經營戰略與卓越的機隊管理能力,擁有“低機齡+長租期”的經營結構,疊加集團公司提供的堅實後盾,公司具備經受疫情考驗的充足底氣,並有望受益於亞太地區的率先復甦。

財務預測與投資建議

我們預測公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別為 1.02/1.17/1.37 美元,採用歷史估值法,公司上市以來歷史 PE 估值中樞為 8.60x,作為 2021 年目標估值,對應目標價 78.19 港元/股(1 美元=7.75 港元)。首次覆蓋,給予公司增持評級。

風險提示

飛機交付情況不及預期,疫情對航空運輸業影響超出預期;淨租賃收益率超預期下行或平均債務成本超預期上行。

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