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植耀辉: 「特」式狙击中海油受累 港股续见反覆
阿思达克 12-02 11:54
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,美国总统特朗普动作多多已不是甚麽新闻,不过最近他却俨然化身成为「股坛狙击手」,皆因继上月中旬宣布将中移动(00941.HK)等31间企业列为制裁黑名单後,本周初又有消息指会将制裁名单增至35间,当中便包括中芯国际(00981.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)。消息一出即时震散中海油。过去两个交易日其累积跌幅便达到18%。

有朋友便问笔者这是否一个捞底机会。按道理,即使被纳入黑名单,对公司业务发展亦不会带来实际影响,所以纯以此角度看,确有一定值博率。问题是美资在未来一段时间内将被迫减持,意味相关股份未来一段时间沽压沉重,所以中短线跑输大市机会仍相当高。何况笔者对油价看法一向也相当审慎,所以博短线技术反弹尚可,惟一定要严守止蚀止赚策略。

另外,亦跟大家简单回顾一下11月全球股市表现,原先大家(包括笔者)颇担心美国大选会增添市场波动,但最终不只美股创新高,欧洲股市亦创下历来11月最佳表现。相比之下,恒指11月亦累升9.3%表现仍算不俗,只是年初至今,恒指仍录得跌幅,跑输中美主要指数。

至於余下一个月能否「翻底」,笔者暂不抱太大寄望,虽然疫苗研发令市场信心大增,只是疫情能否得到遏制仍有待观察,而且较关键的变数仍是特朗普,其在余下一个月恐怕仍会有更多行动,包括进行更多针对中国之措施,而且一旦黑名单「陆续有来」,对大市气氛亦肯定会有更大打击。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~

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