You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
希望教育(01765.HK):內生增長前景強勁,維持“買入”評級,目標價3.41港元
格隆匯 12-02 12:19

機構:招商銀行

評級:買入

目標價:3.41港元

調整後淨利潤同比增長 61%至 5.76 億元人民幣,符合我們預期,並在 5.5-6.0 億元的指引區間內,較市場一致預期低 5%。2021 財年,39%的學生總數增長和強勁的海外升學招生人數再次顯示出公司在提高收購目標績效方面的強大執行能力。我們預計公司在 2021-23 財年的每股收益複合年增長率為 25.4%,高於同行 22%的平均水平。我們預計四所獨立學院的轉設可進一步將 2023 財年淨利潤提升19%。維持買入評級,目標價提升至 3.41 港元。

業績符合預期。收入增長 45%至 15.68 億元,學生人數增長 63%至 140,125人,符合我們預期,但較市場一致預期低 5%。調整後毛利率擴大 5.4 個百分點至 52.4%,得益於較好的規模效應和成本控制。銷售及管理費用佔比下降3.3 個百分點至 16.4%。公司宣佈 2020 年 1-8 月期間派發 0.8 分人民幣股息。未來派息率將維持在 30%。

強勁的海外留學需求推動英迪增長。公司海外升學招生(包括英迪和其他項目)人數由 2019 財年的 1,964 人飆升至 2020 財年的 17,315 人。這些學生將在 2-3年後逐漸成為海外學生。管理層目標 2018-2024年英迪淨利潤實現 40%的複合年增長率。

四所獨立學院轉設將提高收入。2020財年獨立學院管理費用總額為1.7億元,佔調整後淨利潤的 29%。管理層預計將在 2021 年底前對兩所獨立學院進行轉設,並在 2022 年底前對剩餘兩所進行轉設。我們預計這些轉設可進一步將2023 財年淨利潤提升 19%。

 內生增長和併購增長動力強勁。2021 財年,學生總數增長 39%至 194,554 人。今年 10 月,公司收購了南昌的一所職業學院(2,753 名學生),並計劃在2022財年和 2023財年分別開設兩所職業學院。內生增長方面,管理層計劃 3- 5 年內收入實現 15-20%的複合年增長率,淨利潤實現更高的複合年增長率。截至 8 月 31 日,公司坐擁 31 億元人民幣現金,並將尋求收購。

維持買入評級。我們將 2021/22 財年調整後淨利潤分別提高 2%/4%,以反映強勁的學生入學人數,但部分被較高的財務成本和有效税率所抵消。目標價由3.05 港元上調至 3.41 港元,相當於 25.4 倍 2021 財年預測市盈率,維持 1 倍PEG。催化劑:(1)併購;(2)解除政策風險;(3)獨立學院轉設。風險:教師成本飆升。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account