大和:重申對中生製藥(1177.HK)買入評級 目標價11港元
大和發表研究報告指,中生製藥(1177.HK)第三季業績遜預期,受藥品集中採購(GPO)拖累,公司首9個月收入按年跌6%,核心盈利則跌12%,惟相關影響大多已於今年反映,重申對其買入評級,維持目標價11港元。
大和表示,中生製藥收入及盈利將持續受GPO減價所拖累,但預期在明年可見底反彈,主因在公司旗艦創新藥安羅替尼銷售加快,估計今年收入為42億元人民幣,到2022年將提高至73億元人民幣,與其他創新藥合共貢獻收入約23%;同時,公司對仿製藥的依賴度亦料將下降。
大和又認為,受今年盈利表現疲弱及持續的定價壓力,藥股板塊自今年7月以來續低迷,該行估計國家醫保藥品目錄價格談判細節將12月初出爐,當中PD-1mab降價成主要關注點,預料減價後每年售價將為4至5萬元人民幣。由於近期不確定性及長期定價壓力,相信投資者情緒仍低迷,儘管該行對板塊長期增長前景持樂觀看法,但考慮到國家醫保藥品目錄價格談判懸而未決及GPO定價壓力,建議投資者在明年1月前需避免藥品及生物科技股。
該行雖續列中生製藥為行業首選,但削減其20至22年每股盈利預測5-9%,降至分別按年增長2%、25%及34%。

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