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《大行报告》瑞信:内地借贷利率回升利好内银盈利 首选工行、农行及建行
阿思达克 12-01 14:32
瑞信发表研究报告指,由於预期9月新贷款的实际贷款利率将按季回升,在中资银行全年盈利改善的憧憬带动下,内银A股在上周五(27日)带动全线银行股股价上涨。

瑞信表示,过往数据显示,一般贷款的实际贷款利率是商业银行一个或多个季度净息差指标,而第三季实际贷款利率反弹也与季度净息差反弹的趋势一致,增加予中国银行业全年盈利录得正增长的可能性。

该行预计,第四季度净息差将保持稳定或表现更好,展望明年首季度抵押贷款的重新定价,料将引发对净息差的一次性负面影响,但相信影响将在余下几个季度逐步消散。以估值计,平安银行及招商银行(03968.HK)近期上涨得较快,认为中国邮储行及(01658.HK)及光大银行(06818.HK)的估值似乎更具吸引力,继续推荐四大内银,依次看好工商银行(01398.HK)、农业银行(01288.HK)及建设银行(00939.HK),均予「跑赢大市评级」,目标价5.8、3.5及7.2元。

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