高端裝備製造業2020年三季度跟蹤報告：順勢而起
機構：招商銀行
■工程機械：三季度淡季不淡，全年高增長大勢已定。政府逆週期調節持續發力，工程機械行業三季度淡季不淡。以挖掘機為例，據中國工程機械工業協會統計，2020年1-9月我國共銷售挖掘機23.65萬台，同比增長32%，已超去年全年。行業內9家主要的公司在2020Q1-Q3實現營收2166億元，同比增長24.77%；實現歸母淨利潤234億元，同比增長33.88%。考慮到下游基建工程回暖帶來的增量需求及環保政策趨嚴帶來的存量更新需求，工程機械行業全年高增大勢已定。
■軌交裝備：前三季度鐵路固定資產投資略有放緩，四季度或適當加速。疫情影響減弱疊加國鐵集團調增投資計劃，二季度全國鐵路固定資產投資實現逆勢增長，2020H1累計完成3258億元，同比增長1.20%，實現自2013年以來半年度投資額最大值。由於二季度超額完成投資計劃，三季度以來鐵路固定資產投資略有放緩，前三季度全國鐵路固定資產投資累計完成5531億元，同比微降0.26%，其中9月完成991.56億元，同比下降5.55%。展望全年，考慮到前三季度鐵路固定投資微降，為進一步完成全年投資計劃，我們預計第四季度全國鐵路固定資產投資或將適當加速，2020年鐵路固定資產投資額或超8100億元。
■工業機器人：受益於下游需求回暖，工業機器人產量持續高增。三季度以來，工業機器人當月產量同比增速持續攀升，2020年9月工業機器人單月產量同比達68.98%，創下2017年10月以來最高值，此輪工業機器人的上行趨勢基本確定。截至2020年9月，3C、汽車和電氣機械製造業固定資產投資累計同比增速分別為+11.7%、-16.7%、-12.1%，較一季度均大幅好轉。展望全年，在3C領域固定資產保持增長、汽車銷量步入上行通道的大環境下，我們對工業機器人全年行業景氣度保持樂觀。
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