《大行報告》花旗料中海油(00883.HK)營運受美禁令影響少 但美資持股逾6%估短期受壓
就《路透》近日引述消息人士透露,美國政府擬將中海油(00883.HK)增加至黑名單,禁止美國投資者投資該企,花旗發表報告表示,美國相關部門未有回應上述傳聞,中海油旗下中海油田(02883.HK)亦未有清晰指引會否受到上述禁令傳聞所影響。
花旗指,雖然美國實際關於中海油的行政命令尚未公布,但可以參考31間在11月中旬被美國列入黑名單的公司,美國政府官方宣布後60天將禁止購買涉及上市公司證券;第二是必須在交易發生之日起一年之內完成所有權轉讓交易。
據《彭博通訊社》數據顯示,美國投資機構持有約有6.6%的中海油股份,基於中海油是不少指數的成份股,估計美國投資者持有中海油6.6%可能被低估,該行認為基於要符合美國規定,料部分投資者將不得不退出中海油,料導致中海油短期內表現受壓。
花旗表示,料中海油總體營運受美禁令影響將有限,在最壞的情況下,中海油將不得不處置其在美國Eagle Ford、Rokies的頁岩油資產,以及GOM中的Stampede&Appomattox資產,約佔其產量和儲量的6%。
該行估美禁令對中海油田營運業務上影響非常有限,公司在美國市場上沒有任何業務機會,其經拋售後將提供買入機會,但是該行估計美國投資機構持有中海油田股權有較高水平,基於《彭博通訊社》資料,黑石集團,資本集團,摩根大通和惠靈頓共持有中海油服H股約21%的股權和約35%的自由流通量。雖然該行不是確定上述所有這些資產都歸美國實體所有,但一旦禁令屬實,料部分的股份或必須被處置。
而花旗維持對中海油「買入」評級及目標價10.6元。
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