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計算機行業2021年度策略:長尾的新章,給予“強大於市”行業評級
格隆匯 12-01 10:52

機構:中銀國際

評級:強大於市

近幾年計算機優選的賽道都是在挖掘長尾市場價值。我們理解背後的原因在於需求端進入結構化增長期,而供給端軟件企業與人員則日漸充沛。互聯網巨頭和傳統 IT 企業全面融合,舊格局不再,小巨頭紛紛求變也不得不變。若可以通過渠道建設和服務業務在長尾市場勝出,不僅能囊括本賽道市場, 還有望憑藉累積優勢順利出圈,成長為更大的龍頭。此類投資機會不應錯過。

支撐評級的要點

產業互聯網?下沉市場?SaaS?過去三年市場追隨的三個主題實質上都是在挖掘長尾市場價值,它們主題分別從商業模式、經濟區域和客羣屬性三個方面屬於長尾領域。城市化進程放緩、去槓桿與補短板等政策在從正反兩個方面推動長尾市場的投資價值提升。

2021 年的長尾市場格局將翻開新篇章。體現在騰訊、阿里以及字節跳動等互聯網巨頭已經和傳統 IT 企業全面融合,僅 AT 兩家投資板塊的市值就分別達到 4~5 萬億之巨。軟件等行業處於廠商供給和從業人員供給漸充足的階段,用人成本提升下人均創利承壓。產品渠道化和業務運營化成為長尾賽道能夠跑出小巨頭的重要戰略變化。

首先,看好垂直 SaaS 市場。原因在於企業端數字化土壤改良多年,垂直SaaS 將成舒適賽道。疊加疫情後周期企業活力恢復,對雲軟件接受度提升,因此多個細分行業有望突破臨界點進入滲透率衝刺階段。具體下游行業方面看好金融、汽車、教育以及前期景氣度較高的營銷、建築等。

其次,看好生產力軟件市場。除了企業生產力(辦公類)軟件外,尤其是工業生產力軟件有望迎來國產化良機。尤其是 2020 年下半年十四五規劃逐漸提上日程,圍繞軟件、製造業等領域的政策加碼值得期待。

同時,看好政府信息化市場。儘管因地域劃分的原因,包括電子政務、政務雲在內的 G 端市場形成長尾,但整體上對 2021 年信息化投入力度有信心。原因在於(1)需要政府投入啟動“內循環”引擎;(2)政府機 構用網絡化和數字化提升效率、控制成本的需求在持續;(3)政務雲等基礎設施建設有序,後續需要部署業務應用以充分發揮作用。從先行省份的預算規範和標準文件也可以看到,財政對信息化建設的投入確有加大的需求。

對 2021 年整體保持樂觀。科技是中國經濟增長重要因子,比如產業互聯網預計可對 GDP 增量貢獻 10~14%。行業在 2020 年經歷引領市場漲幅到調整消化兩個階段後,基於長期資金對估值的彈性,我們看好 2021 年行業重回全面上行。

重點推薦

重點推薦生產力和工業軟件相關的金山辦公、用友網絡、能科股份,金融/教育/汽車/建築領域軟件和 SaaS 公司恆生電子、廣聯達、中科創達、科大訊飛,做 G 端業務的美亞柏科,關注生產力軟件福昕軟件、中望軟件、垂直 SaaS 公司明源雲集團、中國有贊,醫療政務端企業萬達信息。

評級面臨的主要風險

宏觀經濟景氣度下降;疫情反覆;技術突破不及預期。

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