通信行業:5G建設機會繼續,關注物聯網與電信雲板塊,維持“強大於市”行業評級
機構:萬聯證券
評級:強大於市
行業核心觀點:
上週大盤震盪上行,通信板塊走勢依舊弱於大盤,滬深300指數上漲0.76%,申萬一級28個行業10個上漲,18個下跌,通信行業下跌1.43%,TMT行業中弱於電子,排名第16名。截至今年9月底,我國累計建設5G基站數量已達到69萬個,全年目標已提前完成,留給四季度的空間並不大。並且由於中美貿易摩擦的不斷增加以及歐洲疫情的第二波爆發,行業整體的不確定性上升,謹慎看好通信板塊第四季度的投資機會。
投資要點:
工信部副部長劉烈宏:堅持適度超前原則,會同運營商制定明年基站建設計劃。良好的信息基礎設施將為網絡媒體行業的創新發展提供良好的基礎和環境,當前5G已經成為我國搶佔戰略制高點的關鍵。目前我國5G應用中2C業務的發展穩步推進,但2B、2G業務還處在發展初期,沒有現成經驗可循,需要時間來探索和實踐。5G網絡建設初期投資較大,但滲透性強,輻射帶動面廣,是促進數字化轉型、培植經濟發展新動能的利器。雲遊戲、超清視頻、電商體驗、競技體育、文化旅遊,這些產業都會受益於5G技術的發展。
中國移動李男:與產業攜手,保障2G物聯網業務向NB+Cat1/1bis平穩遷徙。今年5月,工信部印發《關於深入推進移動物聯網全面發展的通知》。通知指出要推動2G/3G物聯網業務遷移轉網,建立NB-IoT(窄帶物聯網)、4G(含LTE-Cat1)和5G協同發展的移動物聯網綜合生態體系。NB-IoT適用於低速率、低功耗、廣覆蓋、低速移動類物聯網業務、LTECat1/1bis適合承載中速率、語音類、高速移動類物聯網業務。未來隨着2G的逐步退網,Cat1和NB-IoT模組產業有望在未來大幅度放量。
ABIResearch:全球電信雲收入到2025年將增至293億美元。到2025年,全球電信雲收入將從2020年的87億美元增至293億美元,五年間年複合增長率為27%。電信雲的增長主要由於基礎設施相關的投資驅動,例如虛擬網絡功能(VNF)、管理和網絡編排(MANO)和雲原生功能(CNF)。ABIResearch在其白皮書中預測,到2025年,北美地區的電信雲市場規模將達到100億美元,亞太地區將達到90億美元,歐洲地區將達到82億美元。
投資建議:光通信領域推薦持續關注中際旭創、光迅科技;通訊設備領域推薦國內設備龍頭中興通訊、星網鋭捷;所有主營業務均為5G建設核心料號的銘普光磁;國內測試領域綜合服務龍頭東方中科;光纖光纜行業龍頭長飛光纖;運營商增長潛力股中國聯通。
風險因素:中美貿易摩擦的不確定性,5G建設程度及滲透速度不達預期,疫情反覆導致全球經濟環境惡化超過預期。
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