家電行業：Q3復甦超出預期，板塊估值水漲船高，維持“增持”行業評級
機構：財通證券
評級：增持
投資要點：
三季報收入分析：營收同比-3%，Q3 復甦力度超預期。前三季度家電行業營業收入 8333億元（yoy-3%），其中 20Q3營收 3277億元（yoy+13%）增長有力，主要系國內量價復甦+出口訂單飽滿。分品類看，前三季度白電、廚電、黑電、小家電、照明及電工、家電零配件營收分別同比-4%、-8%、-1%、+3%、-5%、-4%，其中第三季度收入增長+13%、+15%、+14%、+18%、+10%、+13%，細分行業景氣復甦節奏較為同步。
利潤率分析：Q3毛利率降幅收窄，淨利率同比轉正。前三季度家電整體毛利率 23.6%（yoy-2.4pcts），其中 Q3 同比-1.6pcts降幅逐季收窄，主因經濟常態化帶來的家電行業量價復甦（Q3原材料價格上漲尚未明顯拖累毛利率）。前三季度整體銷售費用率 9.9%（yoy-1.3pcts），廠商壓低費用投入，部分企業安裝費用不再計入銷售費用 。前三 季度家 電整 體淨利 率 7.4%（yoy-1.2pcts），20Q3 淨利率同比+0.1pcts 已經轉正，其中Q3廚電、黑電、零部件板塊的淨利率同比轉正，白電、小家電同比降幅收窄至 0.5pcts 以內。
現金流量表：Q2 起經營性淨現金恢復常態，小家電錶現尤其亮眼。前三季度家電行業經營現金流 488 億（yoy-44%），其中Q2 同比+14%，Q3 同比-24%相較第一季度明顯好轉，第二季度起家電行業供需恢復+現金迴流。子板塊方面，小家電板塊表現較優，其中 Q2 景氣度高漲，經營性現金流同比達到 103%。
估值分析：短期參與難度較高。縱向比較，疫情影響下 PB 是今年更好的參照指標，目前 5年動態 PB-Band 位於估值頂部區間，行業具備時間價值但短期參與難度較高。橫向行業比較，家電的性價比並無顯著優勢，我們用各行業近 10 年 PB-ROE 的自身歷史分位來衡量潛在投資機會，當前家電處於第二象限，PB 分位數=93%，ROE 分位數=5%，處於盈利低位+估值較高的範疇。
風險提示：地產持續低迷，原材料價格攀升，人民幣大幅升值。
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