農林牧漁行業11月行業動態報告：關注種植業政策驅動，繼續把握後周期行情，維持”推薦“評級
機構：銀河證券
評級：推薦
核心觀點
最新觀點
1） 物價指標增長收窄，農林牧漁景氣度維持。 20年 10月我國 CPI同比+0.5%，其中食品項同比+2.2%，食品中豬肉同比-2.8%。10月 CPI環比為-0.3%。期間豬肉價格基本處於震盪下行態勢，影響 CPI豬肉環比-7%。10 月我國農產品進口金額 139.1 億美元，同比+22.25%，出口金額 65.5 億美元，同比-5.15%，貿易逆差 73.5 億美元，同比+64.65%。
2）豬價止跌震盪，季節性上漲或已開啟。在豬週期方面，我們此前分析認為 20H2會出現年內高點或次高點，目前來看基本符合我們的推演。我們認為 20Q4 豬價將呈現季節性波動。一般來説，10 月為價格窪地，11-12 月豬價開啟季節性上漲態勢。我們認為 20Q4-21Q1 豬價依舊處於高位狀態，但中長期看豬價依舊處於下行態勢。養殖個股建議跟蹤出欄高增長、成本管控領先的個股。
3) 後周期行情進行中，動物疫苗為首選。畜禽養殖週期已處於下行過程中，此時後週期的優勢將逐步顯現。1）養殖存欄回升帶來疫苗銷量提升，即基數變大；2）規模化、集中度提升，大型養殖場更偏好市場苗，意味着滲透率將提升，即在基數變大的基礎上使用比率也提升了；3）在現有的疫苗品類中，某些疫苗（豬圓環等）享受高彈性，主要源於養殖利潤高位與生豬損失/體重下行之間的博弈；4）非瘟疫苗若研製成功並市場化，將額外增加一塊市場規模。
4) 年末年初農業政策頻出期，關注種植業。每年年末/年初為我國政策頻出時期，農業行業受政策影響較大，尤其是種植業相關。20 年玉米行業矛盾加劇，價格持續上行。我們建議關注玉米行業相關政策、轉基因進展等情況。
5）年初至今板塊表現強於滬深 300，農產品加工表現突出。年初至 11 月 25 日農林牧漁板塊+26.55%，同期滬深 300+23.91%。其中農產品加工漲幅最大（+46.76%），種植業、飼料、動物保健次之，分別為+39.46%、+23.35%、19.34%。本月初至 11月 25 日，農林牧漁板塊整體上漲 1.25%，其中動物保健、飼料跌幅居前，分別為-3.27%、 -3.19%。
投資建議
當前時點我們建議跟蹤生豬養殖股，而關注更具優勢的消費成長子行業，首推動物疫苗行業；其次，可關注短期價格上行、中期價格迴歸、長期 2C延申邏輯下的黃羽雞板塊；另外，年末年初為政策頻出期，農業受政策因素影響巨大，當前玉米供需矛盾較大，我們建議關注種植業相關政策以及轉基因方面的推進。
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