2021年石化年度策略報告：關注油氣價格反彈帶來的機會，給予“增持”行業評級
機構：川財證券
評級：增持
2020年疫情導致原油、天然氣及相關化學品需求下降，相關產品價格大幅下跌。2021年我們有如下判斷：1、全球主要國家的疫苗大規模接種後，油氣需求恢復，布倫特油價有望回升到60美元/桶；2、OPEC限產仍然能夠維持；3、我國延續保障國內能源安全的政策，繼續加大勘探開發投入。
原油：2021年原油價格有望大幅反彈
2020年原油價格受到疫情的影響出現大幅下跌，9月份再次受歐美疫情的影響，價格下跌到30多美元。2021年疫苗的接種進度及防疫效果成為油價的最主要影響因素，歐美疫情再次爆發的可能性及嚴重程度都有望減弱，對原油需求的邊際影響也在減弱，原油需求有望恢復到2019年的水平。從供給上看，OPEC限產仍將延續，美國頁巖油短期難以大幅提升，全球原油將處於快速去庫存狀態，從而帶動油價大幅反彈。
天然氣：冬季天然氣需求有望超預期增長
今年冬季天然氣需求有望放量增長，供給可能有缺口。今年我國僅有中俄東線北段投產，LNG接收站暫時沒有新站投產，供給增量在50億方左右。今年冬季進入拉尼娜週期，北方地區可能變得更加寒冷，增大了冬季的季節性需求。
成品油、PX、PTA、MEG等石化產品將受益原油價格上漲而出現明顯恢復
2020年3季度，受益我國經濟的快速恢復，國內成品油及相關石化產品需求也在快速增長，三季度大部分產品的產量接近或超過去年同期。2021年我們預計，隨着全球經濟的逐步好轉，相關出口的石化產品有望迎來需求增長，從而帶動相關產品的產量和價格的進一步增長。
因國內經濟逐步恢復，成品油及紡織原材料相關產業鏈的業績已經率先恢復，2021年隨着全球需求的增長，將進一步好轉。相關標的有：恆力石化、榮盛石化、衞星石化、上海石化等。今年冬季國內天然氣需求有望超預期增長，供需在極寒天氣下可能出現缺口，帶動天然氣量價齊升。相關標的有新奧股份、深圳燃氣。
預計2021年油價逐步上漲，石油公司的業績也將逐步恢復、相關標的有中國石化、中國石油。國內延續保障能源安全的政策，今年前三季度，中石化資本支出下滑7%，中海油資本支出下滑5.8%，中石油付現資本性支出同比下降7.8%，即使在油價大跌的情況下，三桶油資本支出降幅明顯小於預期。2020年油服公司業績普遍好於2014-2015年行業低谷時的業績。2021年油服行業有望再次進入景氣區間，相關標的有傑瑞股份、中海油服、中油工程。
給予行業“增持”評級：推薦油服、大煉化及天然氣企業。
風險提示：疫苗研發和接種滯後、OPEC+減產協議提前結束。
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