中教控股(00839.HK)：營收+37%／調整後淨利+29%，重要併購持續落地，獨立學院轉設可期，維持“增持”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
公司終端流水改善，折扣率維持穩定，庫存水平優化，存貨週轉良好。伴隨線下消費環境復甦，線上渠道不斷開拓，品牌矩陣完善，維持增持評級。
摘要：
維持增持評級：結合上半年疫情衝擊及公司目前復甦趨勢，下調公司2020 年淨利潤至 4.52 億人民幣，上調公司 2021-2022 年淨利潤至6.50/7.74億人民幣，對應EPS為0.18（-0.03）/0.26（+0.01）/0.30元人民幣，當前市值對應2021年約11倍PE，繼續維持增持評級。
終端流水增長，線上及線下業績復甦。 下半年線下零售環境恢復以來，公司流水快速改善，9月及 10月預計公司終端流水持續改善，預計達雙位數增長。線上雙十一期間，在公司的積極投入下收入相比去年同期提升超 50%，顯示出線上銷售額較大增長潛力，在線上+線下雙線發力的情況下終端經銷商補貨意願預計加強。
折扣率基本穩定、有效維護品牌調性，庫存水平得到優化。折扣率方面，公司保持基本穩定的折扣率 6.5~7 折左右，在受疫情影響宏觀經濟放緩的背景下公司折扣率依然維持較為穩定，同時有效維持品牌調性。公司在保持原有主流線上銷售平台優勢的同時，積極試水直播、前沿銷售等多種模式。通過朋友圈帶貨、微信小程序等方式 ，挖掘私域流量潛力，獲取更多客流，積極消化庫存。Q3 公司庫存水平約為5個月，Q2為5~5.5 個月，顯示庫存情況獲得改善，為後續經銷商補貨奠定了較好的基礎。
多品牌協同發展，細分市場潛力進一步挖掘。2020 年以來，公司積極推進收購以及合資運營策略，品牌矩陣及產品品類不斷豐富。公司主品牌不斷髮力國潮系列，深受消費者認可。索康尼和邁樂 2020 年預計新開店鋪達 30-50 家，帕拉丁新開店鋪達 30-50 家。開店節奏將在2021年加速，藉助公司自身強大的銷售網絡和高效的供應鏈系統，新品牌有望快速佔據中國市場，不斷擴大銷售規模，成為公司業績增長的不竭動力。
風險提示：海內外疫情持續負面影響，新品牌開拓不及預期，電商銷售不及預期。
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