呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)：呷哺轉型升級，湊湊打開第二增長曲線，維持“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
報告摘要：
呷哺轉型升級，經營情況企穩回升。管理戰略：2019 年公司對人才/產品/品牌策略進行全面改革升級。門店模型：通過打造呷哺 2.0、升級套餐、推廣外賣、引入茶米茶等措施改善單店模型。從數據上看，2019 年的翻座率及增速、同店單店營收增速相對 2019 年上半年均有明顯改善，未來經營情況有望企穩回升。呷哺未來會加密北方區域，拓展華中/華東/華南地區。預計呷哺 2020-2022 年淨開門店分別為30/79/79 家，2019-2022 年收入 CAGR 為 8%。
湊湊進入快速開店期，是公司業績增長的主要動力。湊湊定位中高端火鍋，首創“火鍋+茶憩”模式，主打產品、環境和茶飲，採用輕服務模式。湊湊屬於網紅門店，沒有區域限制，在上海/廣州/深圳/太原/香港等地經營情況表現出色。湊湊單店模型優於呷哺，成熟門店單店營收約 2000 萬，經營利潤率近 20%。預計湊湊開店空間為 958 家，2020-2022 年新開門店分別為 50/70/70 家；隨着成熟門店佔比提升，湊湊整體單店營收和經營利潤率均有較大提升空間，預計 2019-2022年收入 CAGR 為 65%。
調味品拓寬渠道佈局，加大產能建設。公司調味品上半年實現營收5710 萬/+133.3%，開拓商鋪 1.5 萬家，下半年有望開拓商鋪2 萬家，全年收入有望達到 1.7 億元，明後2 年仍然維持高速增長。2022 年公司天津產能釋放，食品銷售佔比有望進一步提升。
盈利預測：中短期看呷哺改善/穩定開店和湊湊快速開店，長期看調味品快速增長。公司已經形成了呷哺/湊湊/調味品/呷煮呷燙四大品牌體系，未來將會接力式發展。預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤分別為 0.02/6.7/7.9 億元，對應 PE分別為 5534/21/17 倍。採用分部估值法，給予呷哺/湊湊 2021 年 25/40 倍估值，對應股價為 22.18 港元，目標48%的上漲空間。維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：食品安全風險；疫情風險；門店擴張不達預期等
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