2021年汽車行業年度投資策略:車市穩復甦,聚焦新趨勢,維持“增持”行業評級
機構:上海證券
評級:增持
主要觀點
乘用車:低基數和促消費政策下2021年有望高增長
近期的國務院常務會議表示將繼續穩定和擴大汽車消費,鼓勵各地放寬限購,並開展新一輪汽車下鄉和以舊換新。在Q1低基數和潛在的促消費政策推動下,2021年全年銷量大概率仍將實現較大幅度增長。國內自主品牌行業洗牌加劇,龍頭企業高速增長,尾部企業加速淘汰,新車型儲備豐富、平台化生產的龍頭車企競爭優勢有望進一步強化。
汽車零部件:關注海外需求復甦、汽車智能化趨勢
下半年以來歐美汽車市場逐步復甦,主要車企Q3營收情況大幅改善,而據國家統計局數據,9月汽車零部件及配件製造業出口交貨值同比增長4.2%,結束了4月以來的連續下滑,海外收入佔比較高的企業有望受益。智能化方面,近期公佈的行業頂層設計規劃2025年L2-L3級自動駕駛汽車達到規模化生產,目前已有大量新車型或改款換代車型搭載L2-L3級自動駕駛,核心零部件需求或將持續快速增長。
新能源汽車:2021年全球表現可期,關注Tesla和MEB兩條主線
2020年全球新能源汽車銷量快速走出疫情影響,前三季度累計銷量178.4萬輛,同比增長11%,市場份額提升至3.4%。2021年來看,受益於政策、產品的共同發力,中國和歐洲市場銷量分別有望達到170和180萬輛。市場格局方面,頭部新造車勢力的關注度和重要性日益提升,傳統車企也在加速電動化進程。建議把握以Tesla為代表的新造車勢力和以大眾MEB為代表的傳統車企兩條投資主線。
投資建議
未來十二個月內,維持汽車行業“增持”評級
2021年汽車行業復甦趨勢有望延續,乘用車領域建議關注新車型儲備豐富、平台化生產獲得突破的龍頭車企;汽車零部件領域建議關注海外需求復甦以及受益於汽車智能化趨勢的零部件供應商;新能源汽車額領域建議關注特斯拉及大眾MEB產業鏈核心供應商。
風險提示
汽車銷售不及預期的風險、產業政策變化的風險等。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.