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利嘉閣下調末季樓價預測至跌逾1.5% 全年料微跌1%
阿思達克 11-26 12:07
利嘉閣地產研究部主管陳海潮表示,在經濟及失業情況仍存隱憂下,即使疫情表現相對穩定,上月樓價指數亦出現意料之外的偏軟。差估署最新數據顯示,2020年10月份私人住宅售價指數報380.9點,較9月份的383.1點下跌0.57%,樓價再次回落;而今年首十個月,售價指數累積升幅收窄至0.45%,若與去年5月份的歷史高位396.9點比較,樓價則累跌4.03%。

差估署10月份售價指數主要反映9月下旬及10月上旬的實際市況,當時疫情表現穩定,確診宗數顯著減少,而且新盤市場十分活躍、銷情理想,部分二手業主議價空間收窄。相信統計期間,能促成交投者多為因應整體經濟及失業率仍存隱憂,而願意減價的業主,故亦因此令上月樓價指數在市場氣氛不俗下出現意料之外的回落。

陳海潮續稱,預期下次公布的11月份指數在平穩中略為偏軟,單月跌幅或收窄至0.3%左右;不過第四波疫情在本月中下旬基本確認爆發,加上10月下旬的國泰(00293.HK)大裁員延伸憂慮,故料在登記數滯後情況下,12月份的樓價指數跌幅恐擴大至1%或以上。在突如其來的第四波疫情爆發拖累下,原先預期第四季樓價可升3%的預測,將修訂為下跌逾1.5%,並以此推算,全年樓價最終恐微跌近1%。

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