利嘉阁下调末季楼价预测至跌逾1.5% 全年料微跌1%
利嘉阁地产研究部主管陈海潮表示,在经济及失业情况仍存隐忧下,即使疫情表现相对稳定,上月楼价指数亦出现意料之外的偏软。差估署最新数据显示,2020年10月份私人住宅售价指数报380.9点,较9月份的383.1点下跌0.57%,楼价再次回落;而今年首十个月,售价指数累积升幅收窄至0.45%,若与去年5月份的历史高位396.9点比较,楼价则累跌4.03%。
差估署10月份售价指数主要反映9月下旬及10月上旬的实际市况,当时疫情表现稳定,确诊宗数显着减少,而且新盘市场十分活跃、销情理想,部分二手业主议价空间收窄。相信统计期间,能促成交投者多为因应整体经济及失业率仍存隐忧,而愿意减价的业主,故亦因此令上月楼价指数在市场气氛不俗下出现意料之外的回落。
陈海潮续称,预期下次公布的11月份指数在平稳中略为偏软,单月跌幅或收窄至0.3%左右;不过第四波疫情在本月中下旬基本确认爆发,加上10月下旬的国泰(00293.HK)大裁员延伸忧虑,故料在登记数滞後情况下,12月份的楼价指数跌幅恐扩大至1%或以上。在突如其来的第四波疫情爆发拖累下,原先预期第四季楼价可升3%的预测,将修订为下跌逾1.5%,并以此推算,全年楼价最终恐微跌近1%。
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