石藥集團(01093.HK)：腫瘤和心血管增長靚麗，業績符合預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價11.78 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.78 港元
核心觀點：
前 3 季度收入增長 14.6%，歸母淨利潤增長 25.1%，業績符合預期。公司披露 3 季報，前 3 季度收入 192 億元（YoY+14.6%），毛利 145億元（YoY +21.6%），歸母淨利潤 35.2 億元（YoY +25.1%）。
恩必普持續高增長，腫瘤和心血管領域增速靚麗。前 3 季度成藥收入157 億元（YoY +17.4%），其中神經系統疾病產品收入 59.87 億元（YoY+9.6%），核心品種恩必普保持 32.1%的高增長；抗腫瘤產品收入 47.17億元（YoY +35.4%），重點產品多美素、津優力、克艾力分別同比增長 36.3%、45.2%、33.1%；抗感染產品收入 20.43 億元（YoY -13.8%）；心血管疾病產品收入 17.62 億元（YoY +68.0%），重點產品玄寧同比增長 38.1%，集採中標產品氯吡格雷銷售額達 4.15 億元；呼吸系統收入 3.54 億元（YoY +44.2%），阿比多爾銷售額 1.4 億元；糖尿病產品收入 2.52 億元（YoY +26.9%）。維 C 原料收入 14.38 億元（YoY -9.9%），抗生素原料收入 7.62 億元（YoY +6.6%），咖啡因及其他收入 13.02億元（YoY +22.5%）。成藥佔比提升至 82%，收入結構持續優化。
研發管線迅速拓展，臨牀轉化值得期待。公司不斷加強研發佈局，前 3季度研發費用 22.66 億元，佔成藥收入 14.4%，研發團隊超 2000 人，在研項目超 300 個，其中創新藥項目超 100 個。2020 年 1-11 月公司已獲 14 個臨牀批件。目前臨牀階段的產品已有 18 項小分子創新藥、13 項大分子創新藥及 11 項新型製劑產品。未來 1-2 年兩性黴素 B、米託蒽醌等脂質體產品的上市將為公司業績增長注入新動力。
盈利預測和投資建議：預計 20-22 年 EPS 為 0.37/0.43/0.51 元/股，當前股價對應 PE 18.5/15.9/13.6x。採用 DCF 方法得到公司合理價值為11.78 港元/股，對應 2021 年 PE 23.1x，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業政策風險；臨牀進展不達預期。 （*如非特殊説明，本報告貨幣單位為人民幣元）
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