網易-S(09999.HK)：在線教育、雲音樂保持高增長，出海收入再創新高，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司披露三季度業績：2020Q3 公司實現營收 186.58 億元，同增 27.48%，毛利潤 98.86 億元，同增 25.61%，毛利率同減 0.79pct 至 52.98%。由於遊戲和有道教育的營銷推廣投入加大，三季度銷售費用 34.43 億元（YOY+112.58%），管理費用 7.84 億元（YOY+3.98%），研發費用 27.89億元（ YOY+28.99% ）。 20Q3 調整後 歸 母 淨 利 潤 36.69 億 元（YOY-22.36%）。由於期間人民幣匯率持續升值，遊戲國內 iOS 端和海外的收入均採用美元結算，若剔除匯率因素影響，税前利潤同比正增長 14%。
? 遊戲收入增長穩健，出海產品再創佳績；有道教育 K12 課程銷售加速增長，暑期營銷導致虧損加大。20Q3 遊戲業務實現收入 138.62 億元，同增20.17%。其中，手遊收入 100.78 億元（YOY+23.1%），端遊收入 37.84億元（YOY+13.1%），遊戲業務毛利率 63.61%，環比減少 0.16pct。根據Sensor Tower 數據顯示《荒野行動》7~8 月先後與日本知名 IP“東京食屍鬼”和“一拳超人”聯動，8 月份重回日本 iOS 暢銷榜首，單月海外收入達到 7800 萬美元，創歷史新高。有道教育實現營收 8.96 億元，同增158.96%，其中 K12 付費人次同比大幅增長 438%至 49.87 萬。由於暑期加大廣告投放力度，有道教育單季度調整後虧損擴大至 8.66 億元。雲音樂訂閲收入和 Look 直播保持快速增長，三季度新業務營收同增 41.56%。
投資建議：公司從二季度開始進行多款西遊 IP 的矩陣式營銷投放，在頭部遊戲激烈競爭的環境中，保持旗艦產品的流水穩定。11 月 20 日上線的二次元策略卡牌《黑潮之上》躋身 iOS 暢銷榜前列，後續產品中《天諭手遊》已進入終測，將於 21 年春節前上線。有道教育和雲音樂收入增長動力強勁，由於營銷費用增加，相應的盈利時點有所延後。我們預計公司 20~22 年調整後歸母淨利潤為 164.1/178.5/233.3 億元，根據 SOTP 算得每股合理價值為 116.9 美元/ADS，181.29 港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：進口遊戲版號難以獲得，版權費用持續增長，新課研發失敗。
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