华侨银行料本港失业率将上升 明年IPO市场续活跃
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告称,本港疫情出现复燃的迹像,驱使政府再度收紧防疫措施,并将香港和新加坡之间旅游气泡启动时间顺延两周。除非第四波疫情在短时间内受控,否则短期内新加坡之外的其他国家/地区与香港建立旅游气泡的可能性不大。这加上多个主要经济体疫情反扑,或阻碍香港第四季经济复苏。另外,11月保就业计划即将结束。因此,该行预期整体失业率(最新数据维持在6.4%不变)将在未来一季度上升。本周,市场将关注2020施政报告会否带来新的纾困措施。
其他方面,新一轮新股集资潮,叠加季节性因素及银色债认购期,或将限制港息的下行空间。展望明年,随着在美上市的中资企业面临退市风险,香港新股集资活动料维持活跃。尽管如此,在银行体系总结余处於历史高位,以及港交所(00388.HK)计划在不早於2022年第二季缩短新股上市结算周期的情况下,新股集资潮对港元市场的影响料逐渐减弱。因此,该行认为只要美联储维持超低利率,港息亦可能继续在低位徘徊。
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