电力设备与新能源行业：加大应对气候变化力度，深入推进清洁能源转型，维持“推荐”评级
机构：方正证券
评级：推荐
事件：
11月22日，国家主席习近平在二十国集团领导人利雅得峰会“守护地球”主题边会上指出二十国集团要继续发挥引领作用，在《联合国气候变化框架公约》指导下，推动应对气候变化《巴黎协定》全面有效实施。中国将力争二氧化碳排放2030年前达到峰值，2060 年前实现碳中和，将坚定不移加以落实。
点评：
“碳中和”愿景下，非化石能源占比将继续提升。我国将致力于 2030 年达到碳排放峰值，2060 年实现碳中和；我们预计到2025年非化石能源占比在18-20%的假设下，我国风电年均新增装机量有望达到26-46GW。欧盟将2030年温室气体减排目标由原有的40％提升至 55％，在2050年前实现“碳中和” ；拜登政府计划在 2035 年前实现无碳发电，在 2050 年之前达到碳净零排放；意味着能源体系有望迎来转型，清洁能源地位将提升。抢装年高增长，陆风平价+海风加速共振。
2020/2021 年我国陆风/海风分别进入抢装期，2020 年 1-10 月我国新增并网风电18.3GW，同增24.8%；风电工程投资完成1835亿，同增 126.7%；装机和投资均实现高增长。2019 年我国平均陆上风电 LOCE 为0.046 USD/KWH，即将进入平价上网时代，随着消纳问题改善、平价大基地储备充分，也为平价时代奠定基础。海上风电发展加速，2019 年中国新增海风装机量达到 2.40GW，近五年 CAGR达46.0%，截至上半年，我国海风电在建容量达 30个共13GW，海风电装机正在加速；地方政府接力国家支持，广东重点强调“海上风电领跑工程”，计划到25年底累计投产海上风电15GW。
板块复盘：截至 11月23日，申万风电设备指数（857332.SI）含 14 家上市公司，剔除两只 ST 股后，合计市值 1772.02 亿，平均 PE25.18倍。2020年3 月至今，受益于抢装年风电工程投资金额和新增装机量高增长，公司业绩高速增长，风电设备指数上涨 67.99%，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 35.78%，实现 32.21%的超额收益。投资建议：推荐海上风电相关标的，明阳智能、东方电缆；推荐零部件的叶片龙头中材科技，相关公司有铸件龙头日月股份、主轴公司金雷股份、新强联等。
风险提示：风电装机不及预期；平价后下游运营商投资热情下滑；电力消费增速缓慢，电源过剩加剧；风电度电成本下降缓慢，被其他更有竞争力的电源取代。
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