京東集團-SW(09618.HK):穩健的2020年第三季度業績,維持“買入“評級,目標價370.00港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:370.00港元
10 月份在線購物需求持續強勁。根據中國國家統計局公佈的數據,2020 年 1-10 月中國電商交易額同比增長 10.9%至人民幣 91,275 億元,較 2020 年 1-9 月的增長率增加 1.2 個百分點。 2020 年 1-10 月的在線購物滲透率為 24.2%。
要點:1)京東-SW (“公司”)的 2020 年第三季度業績超出預期。公司的用户獲取仍在按計劃進行,盈利的強勁增長證明了公司的業務模式已從規模的增長中受益。2)正如我們預期的那樣,普通商品產品和服務收入繼續推動公司的收入增長,從而增加其收入貢獻。3)管理層表示,由於在 2020 年第一季度至第三季度的令人意外的盈利能力,公司會在 2020年第四季度將額外的利潤進行再投資。2020 年至 2022 年的非 GAAP 淨利潤預測分別為人民幣 16,731 百萬元/人民幣 24,499 百萬元/人民幣 30,785 百萬元,非 GAAP 淨利潤率預測分別為 2.3%/ 2.7%/ 2.9%,有望實現利潤率擴張。
我們將目標價定為 370.00 港元,投資評級為“買入”。我們認為在線服務市場仍然是一片藍海,特別是在新冠疫情後時期已經產生了一些新需求。為了推動營收增長,公司將繼續進行再投資以搶佔市場份額並鞏固其市場地位。我們的目標價相當於 58.8 倍 2020 年預測非 GAAP 市盈率或 1.3 倍 2020 年預測市銷率。

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