《大行报告》中金升润啤(00291.HK)目标价至60元 关注喜力在内地持续高成长
中金发表报告表示,华润啤酒(00291.HK)於11月18日召开雪花渠道夥伴大会,管理层细化了「4+4」产品矩阵,提出未来3至5年高端目标是接近进而超过主要竞争对手,并分享了渠道商打造培养计划。同时,公司公布首三季纯利36.5亿人民币,该行估计华润啤酒减值及费用或主要计提在今年第四季。
该行指,华润啤酒正快速扩充高端矩阵,认为公司未来通过渠道扩张、同渠道高低端产品置换及持续高强度的费用投入存在实现的可能,可以带动公司盈利能力提升,但仍需关注其所扩充的新消费客群的属性及喜力高端品牌价值维持的持久性。
据该行调研,喜力的市场能见度在各档次的各渠道均快速提高,商超成交价基本在10元人民币瓶左右,可以「迎合」未来三年10元人民币价位快速成长势头并借助雪花渠道而实现快速放量,该行估计今明两年喜力(包括星银)在内地销量或实现各25万吨及35万吨,其客群正在扩大 。
中金称,由於公司聚焦喜力,上调今明两年喜力销量,但考虑到高低端替换效应,下调「勇闯」销量增速,因此上调今明两年盈利预测各8.3%及4.3%,各至24.16亿及35.35亿人民币,引入2022年盈利预测41.51亿元人民币,考虑到估值切换,上调目标价20%至60港元,对应 今明两年企业价值对EBITDA各25倍及22倍,维持「中性」评级。(wl/k)
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