《大行報告》中金料蒙牛(02319.HK)下半年液態奶增勢延續 估明年奶價處上行階段
中金發表研究報告指,與蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)管理層商談後,認為公司下半年液態奶增長勢頭持續,收入增幅有望達雙位數,考慮到原奶供給仍然緊張,因此預期2021年奶價很大機會延續上升趨勢,對大型乳企而言競爭環境相對有利。
報告指,蒙牛預計今年低溫鮮奶收入有望達14億至15億元人民幣,未來將繼續拓展華東、華南、華北、華中及東北市場,並估計芝士產品收入規模近8億元人民幣,奶粉業務則依托雅士利(01230.HK)、貝拉米等品牌驅動。
該行認為,蒙牛中期經營利潤率有改善空間,考慮到今年下半年至明年奶價成本壓力較大,加上明年農曆新年較晚的影響,將2020至2021年純利預測下調4%及1.6%,維持目標價43元及「跑贏行業」評級。
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