敏華控股(01999.HK)FY2021中期業績點評:外銷回暖內銷亮眼,線上線下快速發展,維持“強推”評級,目標價17.26 港元
機構:華創證券
評級:強推
目標價:17.26 港元
事項:
公司發佈 2021 財年中期業績,截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日,公司實現營業收入 66.37億港元,同比增長 18.7%;實現歸母淨利潤 7.49 億港元,同比增長 6.2%;實現扣非後歸母淨利潤 8.10 億港元,同比增長 14.9%;派息率 50.7%。
評論:
內銷加碼佈局業績亮眼,外銷回暖降幅收窄。公司上半財年收入同增 18.7%表 現亮眼,銷售沙發 66.2 萬套,內銷市場強勁。分業務看,FY2021H1 沙發及配套產品/其他產品/其他業務/Home集團分別實現收入 46.41/14.95/16.82/33.32億港元。分市場看,中國市場收入 41.93 億港元,同增 44.8%,收入佔比大幅提 升 11.4pcts 至 63.2%。近年來國內市場進入發展快車道,公司拓展品類加碼電商,佈局全國機場安檢框,累計曝光率 6 億+,網絡討論量 500 萬+,品牌力持續強化下增長態勢有望保持良好;北美市場收入 15.96 億港元,同降 1.8%,對美出口訂單在疫情後已恢復快速增長,越南產能爬坡迅速,美國市場降幅收窄;歐洲及其他海外市場受疫情影響較大,收入同降 19.8%至 3.47 億港元。
? 線下拓店加速店效提升,線上保持快速發展。剔除鐵架業務,以人民幣口徑來看,FY2021H1 公司中國區收入同增 54.7%,其中電商增長 66.6%,線下增長51.2%。線下渠道方面,公司實現收入 28.84 億港元,同增 51.2%。公司加快線下門店開店、擴店步伐,門店數增加 658 家至 3532 家。同時公司細化門店管理,加強對經銷商的支持,針對性提高有效體驗數、轉化率、客單價,上半年單店收入 81.66 萬港元,同增 15%。線上渠道方面,公司積極拓寬線上銷售渠道,全面佈局天貓、蘇寧、唯品會、亞馬遜、京東等多個電商平台,FY2021H1實現收入 9.20 億港元,同增 66.6%,佔比提升 1.7pcts 至 24.2%。
盈利水平基本持平,產能佈局持續完善。FY2021H1 毛利率與去年同期持平為 35% , 其 中 中 國 / 北 美 / 歐 洲 及 其 他 市 場 /Home 業 務 毛 利 率 分 別 同 比-2.5pcts/+0.1pct/-4.0pcts/+8.9pcts,國內毛利率下滑主要系幫扶經銷商開店所致。費用方面剔除匯兑損益、非經常性損益等影響,淨利率與去年同期基本持平。上半財年公司產能佈局趨於完善,越南工廠逐步實現規模化生產,零部件生產實現本地化有利於進一步降低運輸成本,越南、大亞灣產能目前分別為3200/1600 櫃,產能爬坡率分別為 88%/80%,國內產能目前約 68.5 萬套,產能爬坡率約 60%,產能利用率提升明顯。
內銷發力業績可期,優勢強化行穩致遠。長期疫情“宅文化”利好功能沙發賽道,公司積極佈局國內市場,產品、品牌、生產等優勢強化凸顯,有望發揮龍頭效應引領功能沙發市場發展。我們維持公司盈利預測,預計 FY2021-FY2023 年歸母淨利潤為 18.08/20.81/24.59 億港元,EPS 分別為 0.48/0.55/0.65 港元/股,對應當前股價 PE 為 30/26/22 倍。考慮到公司疫情下的出色表現及長期發展潛力,上調目標價至 17.26 港元/股,對應 2021 財年 36X,維持“強推”評級。
風險提示:國內疫情反覆、國外疫情大幅衝擊終端銷售;國內外市場競爭加劇。

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