《即日市评》恒指止连升 小米逆市弹半成
恒指连升三日(累涨387点或1.5%)後，今日反覆回吐。市场关注美国新冠疫情恶化导致局部封城，抵销新冠疫苗利好(辉瑞疫苗临床测试有效率95%)，美股道指及纳指昨晚各升1.2%及0.8%；执笔之时美汇指数升至92.58，美股道指期货最新跌9点或0.03%、美股纳指期货最新跌24点或0.2%。今早人民币中间价续上调109点报6.5484兑一美元逾两年高，据报内地多地出台年底促消费新举措。汽车消费和免税消费成重点，上证综升0.5%收3,363，深证成指升0.9%，内地创业板指数升0.9%，沪深两市成交额共7,743亿人民币。
恒指低开83点，其後跌幅曾扩大至232点一度低见26,311点，全日跌187点或0.7%，收26,356点；国指跌84点或0.8%，收10,555点；恒生科技指数跌68点或0.9%，收7,903点。大市全日成交总额1,319.37亿元，沪、深港通南下交易录得净流入金额分别为26.48亿及10.09亿元人民币。安踏(02020.HK)今日股价破顶升2.7%收111.4元。
【恒指止连升 小米逆市扬】
科技股走个别，腾讯(00700.HK)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及美团(03690.HK)股价各跌2.7%、1.9%及2%，但小米(01810.HK)今日逆市弹高5%收25.2元。瑞银发表报告，上调对小米集团今年第三季智能手机付运预测，由原来3,800万部升至4,300万部、调高公司今明两年智能手机预测由原来各1.32亿部及1.6亿部，上调至各1.39亿及1.65亿部，考虑了小米旗下拉美业务增长，就公司将於下周二(24日)公布今年第三季业绩，料小米上季收入及列帐纯利预测各为760亿及33亿人民币，对比市场预测各690亿及33亿人民币。
瑞银维持对小米「中性」评级及目标价23元，此相当预测未来一年市盈率27倍。据瑞银证据实验室的调查结果，该行得出三个结论。在中国消费者中，小米的排名正在提升为「理想/高端品牌」，并排名第二位，仅次於华为。而将小米视为「我坚守的品牌」的中国消费者比例，从2020年3月的25%上升最新至37%(历史最高)。
【沽空率下滑 啤酒股弹高】
港股主板今日市宽转弱，主板股票的升跌比率为18比23(上日23为17)；恒指成份股今日14只股份上升，32只股份下跌，升跌比率为29比65(上日61比32)。大市今日录沽空168.52亿元，占可沽空股份成交1,100.93亿元的15.307%(上日16.266%)。
啤酒股有支持，百威亚太(01876.HK)股价抢高5.4%收27元，华润啤酒(00291.HK)及青岛啤(00168.HK)股价均扬4.4%。摩根士丹利发表研究报告引述百威管理层表示，公司着重其高端品牌策略，通过品牌组合的领导优势、进一步渗透市场和及时转移渠道，以强化其在相关高端界别的市场地位。该行指，在中国的夜生活渠道重启程度已恢复至超过90%，餐厅渠道更已完全正常化。而公司亦正加强家居销售渠道，维持电商销售领导地位，但相对占收入比例仍然少，故有增强的空间。
摩根大通发表报告指，根据国家统计局数据，内地10月啤酒行业生产量按年下跌11.3%至188万吨，表现逊於市场预期。该行表示，行业生产量放慢不一定代表市场龙头的销售量增长亦放缓，虽然整体行业10月产量下跌是令人失望，但并不认为是时候对中国啤酒行业看法转为负面。摩通喜好内地啤酒业的高档化趋势，因可推动毛利率扩张，而市场亦重视啤酒股的增长质素及毛利扩展多於啤酒量的上升。行业中，该行首选仍为华润啤酒，紧接为青岛啤酒及百威亚太。(wl/a)
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