澳優(01717.HK)：牛奶粉快速增長+羊奶粉紮實精進+益生菌新時代，維持“推薦”評級
機構：長城證券
評級：推薦
公司前三季度實現營業收入 57.58 億元，同比增長 22.8%。撇除 2020 年前三季度衍生金融工具公允價值變動帶來的影響及一次性業務單元重組成本，經調整錄得歸屬於公司權益持有人應占利潤為人民幣 7.92 億元，同 比增長 19.5%。
分產品來看，牛奶粉業務快速增長，羊奶粉業務紮實精進。自家配方牛奶粉、羊奶粉分別實現營業收入 26.40 億元/23.50 億元，同比增長24.8%/17.8%。在牛奶粉方面，海普諾凱 1897 業務單元，增長迅速，驅動整體營收，2020 年前三季度該業務單元實現營業收入 18.27 億元，同比增長 67.1%，第三季度實現營業收入 6.11 億元，同比增長 65.3%。單三季度來看，佳貝艾特增長較慢，拖累整體營收增速。公司重組其分銷渠道，加強存貨管理以及銷售管理。截至目前，其存貨水平已下降至更健康狀態。佳貝艾特隸屬差異化羊奶粉賽道，有望保持羊奶市場領先地位，引領羊奶粉成為嬰兒配方奶粉之主流產品。
營養品業務持續推進，實現快速增長。營養品實現 1.05 億元，同比增長29.4%。2020 年，繼澳優在 2019 年同期通過可換股債券間接收購了豐華生物科技股份有限公司及其旗下全資子公司 AunulifePty Ltd 後，豐華益生菌業務正式統一品牌名為“錦旗生物 Bioflag"，並於 7 月 10 日推出了旗下全新益生菌產品——愛益森益生菌，在傳統第三代益生菌產品的基礎上特別加入瀅養元，引領益生菌領域跨入全新的 4.0 時代。11 月 4 日，錦旗生物再次對外發布後生元應用先導者——Totipro 益萃質。
盈利預測與投資建議：考慮到公司對上游奶源把控能力提升、牛奶粉快速增長，羊奶粉紮實精進，益生菌邁入新時代，我們預計公司 20-22 年營業收入分別為 82.37、101.89、124.61 億元人民幣，同比增長 22.3%、23.7%、22.3%，預計 20-22 年淨利潤分別為 11.02、14.25、18.39 億元人民幣，同比增長 25.5%、29.2%、29.1%，對應的 EPS 分別為 0.68、0.88、1.14 元人民幣，維持“推薦”評級。
風險提示:鋪貨率提升緩慢，原料價格上漲，新品銷售不及預期，國際貿易摩擦增加，食品安全問題。
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