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《大行报告》摩通:部份内企近期债务违约惹关注 但不预期中国爆发「明斯基时刻」
阿思达克 11-18 14:38
摩根大通发表报告表示,近期内地国企出现债务违约的情况,引发市场关注,拖累内银股股价表现;而国企债券占整体公司债券达90%,贷款则占商业银行企业帐之53.1%。该行预期,国企债务违约率将进一步上升,即使国企债券的违约率不断上升,但信用风险受控,据该行估计国企债券的潜在债务风险率为5.3%。

不过该行认为,不预期内地国企债务爆发「明斯基时刻」(是指在信贷周期或商业周期中,资产价格开始大幅下挫的时份),至今年11月累积债务违约率为1.83%,低於今年第三季银行的不良贷款率1.96%,因此债务违约风险远未达到「响起警号」的水平;亦认为中央会逐步推出措施以解决上述问题,由於债券价格的调整,内银的投资损失将增加,但预计企业不良贷款率不会急剧上升。

於内银股中,该行看好招商银行(03968.HK),主因其企业债券之业务比重较低。

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