板塊異動 | 航運、港口股繼續上揚,中遠海控漲超8%
uSMART盈立智投11月17日消息,週二港股早盤,RCEP的利好效應繼續發酵,航運港口板塊繼續出現普漲行情,截至11:35分,中遠海控漲8.39%,中遠海發漲超6%,中國外運、廈門港務漲超5%。
中金髮布研報稱,2020年11月15日,東盟十國以及韓國、日本、澳大利亞、新西蘭、中國正式簽署“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”(RCEP)。
RCEP是一個綜合性協議。RCEP由東盟十國在2012年發起,歷經八年談判,於2019年11月4日完成談判,並於2020年11月15日正式簽署。
RCEP法律文本共有20章,即涵蓋了貨物貿易、服務貿易、投資等市場準入,也包括貿易便利化、知識產權、電子商務、競爭政策、政府採購等大量規則內容。
RCEP將促進區域內貿易,對中國GDP有所提升,紡織服裝、輕工最爲受益。在最受關注的關稅削減方面,RCEP中貨物貿易零關稅產品數整體上超過90%,並且新增了中日、日韓兩對重要國家間的自貿關係。商務部副部長兼國際貿易談判副代表王受文表示:“根據國際智庫測算,2025年,RCEP可望帶動成員國出口增長比基線多10.4%。”根據彼得森國際經濟研究所估算,假設中美貿易摩擦延續,中國加入RCEP將在2030年爲其實際國民收入帶來額外1000億美元的增長,從而抵消約三成貿易摩擦帶來的負面影響。賽迪研究院工業經濟研究所助理研究員樑一新(2020)測算,RCEP可以分別提升“十四五”期間中國出口、進口、投資、GDP增速1.95、1.63、0.09、0.04個百分點;紡織服裝、輕工的產出增速將分別提升0.86、0.33個百分點。
對於中國來說,RCEP簽署的戰略意義更強。雖然印度退出,但目前RCEP十五國仍然佔據世界30%的人口和近30%的GDP,將成爲世界上最大的自貿區。在RCEP框架下,中日貿易關稅將預計大幅縮減,中韓也將進一步便利關鍵領域貿易。鑑於美國試圖切斷含有中國產品尤其是科技產品的供應鏈已經是兩黨共識,中國與其它亞洲國家強化商業紐帶並深化科技合作的重要性也日益突出。我們預計RCEP將有效增加成員國間的貿易往來,提升區域經濟活力和競爭力,並降低該區域對美國的依賴程度。而RCEP對比CPTPP,兩者均屬區域性自貿協定。在會員國和地域分佈上,也有部分重合,日本和澳大利亞等七個國家同時參與了這兩個自貿協定。不同的是,CPTPP在貿易以外的諸多領域有着更爲嚴苛的加入標準。RCEP的簽署爲未來中國參與更多更高標準的自由貿易協定、促進雙循環提供了堅實的基礎。
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