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敏華控股(01999.HK):加速開店可帶來新一輪高增長
格隆匯 11-18 09:33

機構:招商銀行

我們對公司 21 和 22 財年前景非常樂觀,考慮到:1)快速門店擴張;2)非常有競爭力的產品及公司積極的營銷;以及 3)海外訂單仍然強勁,儘管匯率可能有短期的壓力。因此,目前 21 倍 22 財年預測市盈率及 1.2 倍 3 年 PEG 的估值,我們認為仍舊吸引,對比同業,如顧家家居的 31 倍及 2.3 倍、歐派家居的 32 倍及2.4 倍。

21 財年上半年業績超預期。公司 21 財年收入/淨利潤分別同比增長 19%/7%,均超越市場預期。大陸地區毛利率同比下降 1.5 個百分點,主要是由於裝修補貼及銷售返利增加和渠道組合變化導致的單價下降的影響,不過,因為其他業務的毛利率有所改善,所以一定程度有相互抵消。值得注意的事,剔除匯兑損失及一次性的投資公允價值的損失,經調整淨利潤是同比上升 26%的,而派息率亦由 20 財年的 44%提升至 21 財年上半年的 51%。

銷售增長亮眼,短期有望保持。集團銷售同比增速由 20 財年下半年的 14%提升至 21 財年上半年的 19%,主要由於:1)大陸地區銷售增長 53%,線上及線下分別增長 65%及 50%;2)美國銷售相當有韌性,即使在四至六月越南大面積停產之後,21 財年上半年銷售同比只是僅僅下降 1%。我們認為下半年增速還能加快,由於:1)受惠行業整合,公司能加速擴張;2)通過更積極的品牌營銷(像今年多開了不少快閃店)和加大對具競爭力產品的推廣;3)出口訂單改善,目前預定的訂單已排到 2021 年的春節前後。

中國區域的快速開店擴張才剛開始。公司認為現在是擴張業務的最佳時期,因為疫情是在加速行業整合,購物中心亦釋放岀更多優質位置,且公司也在加速滲透低線城市。21 財年上半年新開了 658 家店,同比增長約 30%,較20 財年下半的 260 家新開店及約 10%的增速有所加快。管理層預計在下半年至少能新開 400 家店,而且三年內(至 2023 財年)亦有信心超越 5,000家店。

新任 CEO 通過數字化提升效率。公司新任 CEO 馮國華曾於 2016 至 2020 年間擔任微軟大中華區企業服務部總經理。在此之前,他是 IBM 全球企業諮詢服務部門副總裁兼高級合夥人。他在發佈會上指出,公司可以通過數字化完善各個領域,例如營運效率、客户關係、營銷及海外業務等等。

利潤及估值相信仍有提升空間。我們認為,業績超預期後,市場的預期或將進一步提升,南下資金亦有機會幫助估值修復。根據彭博預期,公司當前股價相當於 21 倍 22 財年預測市盈率及 1.2 倍 PEG,較行業的 23 倍及 2.1 倍為低。

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