《大行报告》高盛料美投资禁令影响42间中资上市公司 若MSCI剔出相关股份料涉280亿美元沽售
高盛发表研究报告,指美国总统特朗普在11月12日启动《国际紧急经济权力法》和《国家紧急状态法》,并签署了一项行政命令,禁止美国人投资与中国军事活动有关的中国公司。而在今年初,美国国防部点名31家受到中国军方支持的公司。
该行估计,有42个中国上市公司或会受到新限制影响,估计美国的所有权占这42家中国上市公司的市值3%,但各公司之间的所有权差异很大。如果美国投资者要完全出售所持有的这些股份,意味将共有140亿美元的资金流走。
高盛又指,若MSCI降低指数权重或删除相关股票,潜在抛售可能会涉及更广范围,因为可能涉及非美国注册的投资者。假设所有追踪MSCI全球,新兴市场和亚洲指数的主动和被动基金都完全出清它们在这些公司中的股份,则潜在的抛售额将会为280亿美元。
另外,禁止美国投资者对这些公司进行交易不一定会导致这些公司从ADR退市,因为从理论上来看,非美国投资者仍可以在美国交易所进行交易。然而,流动性低往往是过去公司从ADR退市的主要原因。另外,若受影响的公司进一步扩大,可带来的潜在影响将更加严重,尤其是对科技或互联网行业。
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