敏华控股(01999.HK)：中期业绩靓丽，软体龙头开启成长新篇章，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
公司发布 2021财年中期业绩公告，上半财年实现营收66.37亿港元，同比增长 18.7%；归母净利润 7.49 亿港元，同比增长 6.2%，扣非归母净利润同比增长 14.9%，剔除汇兑损益后的扣非归母净利润同比增长 26.3%。公司业绩增长靓丽，分红比例上升12.8pct至 50.7%。
内销增长强劲。上半财年内销收入同比增长 44.8%，剔除铁架后同比增长 54.7%（人民币口径）。敏华提升产品力（性价比与款式），加速线下扩张（门店净增 658 家） ，加大终端补贴（装修补贴返利） ，加强线上布局（线上收入同比增长 67%），市占率与渗透率双重提升。
外销逐渐回暖。H1 北美收入同比下滑 1.8%，虽受疫情影响，但当前需求迅速恢复，且越南基本覆盖对美产能、不受关税影响，故公司受益于沙发出口集中度提升。 H1 欧洲及其他地区收入同比下滑 19.8%。 H1其他业务收入同比下滑 40.8%，主要因房地产销售收入下滑。
费用投放略有承压。①毛利率同比持平，内销毛利率同比下降 2.5pct，主要系经销商装修材料和折扣返点直接抵扣收入，北美毛利率基本持平；②销售费用率同比提升0.4pct，广告推广增加。③其他损益由收益0.8 亿港元转为亏损0.8 亿港元，主要系汇兑损失以及债券公允价值亏损。所得税率下降 4.8pct至 14.4%，主要因递延税项所致。
引入职业经理人，治理结构更加合理。近日公司聘请冯国华先生为CEO，改善治理结构，未来有望发力信息化建设，助力内销扩张。
盈利预测：敏华护城河深，内销加速改革，预计FY21-FY23敏华归母净利分别 18.9/24.2/29.9亿港元，同比分别增长15.6%/28.0%/23.4%。公司内销零售占比上升，有望上移估值中枢，给予敏华控股 2022 财年PE估值25x，对应合理价值为 15.93港元/股，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：地产销售大幅下滑，原材料大幅涨价，拓品类不及预期。
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